Fantasy Basketball: Points League Draft Tiers

An initial mock draft for the season highlighted a clear trend: the first round saw a scarcity of small forwards, power forwards, and shooting guards (zero, one, and one respectively), while centers and point guards each had four selections. Conversely, later rounds, specifically the fourth and eighth, were heavily populated by shooting guards, small forwards, and power forwards.

This pattern reflects a recurring trend in recent seasons: point guards and big men typically dominate early draft picks, whereas valuable wing players often become available in later rounds. Such insights are crucial for fantasy managers, as they inform strategic decision-making when constructing their teams. This article`s tier-based breakdown aims to provide exactly that kind of valuable guidance.

One strategy could involve prioritizing small forwards in the initial rounds, recognizing their limited availability among early picks.

Alternatively, managers might focus on identifying tiers where talent for specific positions is most concentrated. For example, Power Forwards see their largest cluster in Tier 3, while Small Forwards are deepest in Tier 5. For Centers, Tiers 1 and 2 are robust, but Tier 3 contains only one player. Leveraging this information helps create a strategic roadmap for building a competitive fantasy team.

While various paths lead to a championship team, all successful strategies hinge on acquiring high-performing players across your roster. Below, I present my player breakdown into positional tiers, derived from my preseason projections.

Reviewing my tier system can be insightful, but the greatest advantage comes from creating your own player tiers based on your personal evaluations. This simple, perhaps 20-minute, exercise can significantly enhance your draft preparation and provide a distinct edge over your league competitors.

Point Guard

Thoughts on PGs:

• Point guards notably populate the top two tiers more heavily than any other position, with reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander anchoring Tier 1.
• Luka Doncic retains his top-tier status despite his trade to the Lakers from the Mavericks, while Cade Cunningham ascended to the top tier following an exceptional performance last season.
• Tier 2 comprises guards who serve as their team`s franchise players, whereas Tier 3 features a mix of franchise players and All-Star-caliber secondary options.
• Tier 4 includes two specialized players: Dyson Daniels excels in steals, and Derrick White in three-pointers. Tier 5 is composed of star-level talents anticipated to miss the season`s start (Tyler Herro, Darius Garland) and promising younger players poised for expanded roles in new team environments (Jordan Poole, Kevin Porter Jr.).
• Egor Demin is the first rookie to appear on the list, placed in Tier 8.

Shooting Guard

Thoughts on SGs:

• Anthony Edwards holds the sole Tier 1 spot among shooting guards for the second consecutive season.
• Tier 2 features two All-Stars, Devin Booker and Jaylen Brown, both expected to shoulder larger responsibilities this season due to the absence of former co-stars Kevin Durant (traded) and Jayson Tatum (injured). They are accompanied by Amen Thompson, who, after a breakout sophomore year, projects for superstar potential with an increased team role in his third season.
• Donovan Mitchell headlines Tier 3; he might have reached Tier 2 if not for the Cavaliers` team success last season, which curtailed his minutes. He`s joined by three other burgeoning young stars.
• Tier 4 consists of only two players, Jalen Green and Austin Reaves. Both have demonstrated strong scoring potential but are projected as second or third offensive options on teams already featuring multiple high-volume scorers.
• Reed Sheppard is an intriguing prospect, placed in Tier 6 despite limited rookie minutes. He is expected to take on a significantly expanded role with the Rockets this season, following trades and injuries that have thinned their backcourt.
• Dylan Harper is the sole rookie featured on this list, appearing in Tier 9.

Small Forward

Thoughts on SFs:

• LeBron James stands alone in Tier 1 among small forwards. His presence here at 40 years old is extraordinary, especially after a season where he ranked ninth in total fantasy points and sixth in average fantasy scoring across the league.
• Jalen Williams, who ranked 26th in the league for fantasy scoring average, earns a spot in Tier 2 due to his youth and ongoing development.
• Cooper Flagg, the highest-rated rookie, finds himself in Tier 3 amidst a diverse collection of players, including high-scoring wings like the young veteran Franz Wagner and DeMar DeRozan. Josh Hart also secured a Tier 3 placement, attributed to his versatile all-around play and consistent availability, which keeps him among the league`s top fantasy-producing wings.
• Tier 4 includes both Miles and Mikal Bridges, alongside Michael Porter Jr., who is projected for an expanded role in Brooklyn compared to his time with the Nuggets. Deni Avdija, who began a breakout season last year, has the potential to significantly exceed his Tier 5 ranking this season.
• Brandon Ingram and particularly Kawhi Leonard would ordinarily be ranked much higher based on their on-court performance, but their consistent injury concerns place them further down this list.
• Intriguing prospects in the lower tiers include Ausar Thompson in Tier 7, who aims for a rebound season after health issues contributed to a sophomore slump, along with rookie Ace Bailey and the 2024 No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher, both in Tier 9.

Power Forward

Thoughts on PFs:

• Giannis Antetokounmpo remains a constant in Tier 1 for power forwards. This season, he`s joined by Anthony Davis, who is transitioning from center to power forward for a Mavericks squad boasting significant depth at the center position.
• Pascal Siakam is the sole occupant of Tier 2, and his offensive workload is anticipated to grow in the absence of Tyrese Haliburton.
• Tier 3 is densely populated, featuring a diverse array of talents from Kevin Durant to Zion Williamson, who continues to strive for a full season of healthy, superstar-level play.
• Tiers 4 and 5 collectively include four players. Notably, three of these are tall, slender forwards who combine effective shot-blocking with perimeter scoring capabilities.
• No rookie power forwards earned a spot in the higher tiers. However, Matas Buzelis, ranked in Tier 9, showed promising upside as a rookie last season and could emerge as a significant fantasy contributor in his sophomore year.

Center

Thoughts on Cs:

• Tiers 1 and 2 feature a deep pool of centers, encompassing the seven listed players along with two power forwards holding dual eligibility. Nikola Jokic consistently holds the consensus top overall pick in fantasy basketball. Victor Wembanyama remains among the select few players in the league with the potential to challenge for that coveted top spot.
• Tier 2 introduces some fresh faces, most notably Ivica Zubac, who had a breakout performance last season, elevating his status.
• Bam Adebayo is the sole player listed in Tier 3, though Evan Mobley, a Tier 3 power forward, also possesses dual eligibility for the center position.
• Joel Embiid lands in Tier 4, but concerns regarding his availability could cause a further drop. In an early points league mock draft, I selected Embiid in the sixth round; however, there has been limited positive news regarding his health as the season approaches. If his health status doesn`t improve soon, he may slip into lower tiers.
• Alex Sarr, the 2024 NBA draft`s No. 2 overall pick, showcased significant promise during his rookie year and again in the Vegas Summer League, earning him a debut in Tier 5. Four other players from his draft class also appear on this list: three in Tier 8 and one in Tier 9.

Final Thoughts

While multiple strategies can lead to a championship, a key approach involves maximizing value at each draft position. By understanding which talent types are available throughout different draft segments, you can significantly enhance your team`s overall performance. This proactive strategy will undoubtedly prove rewarding.