Charlotte Hornets point guard LaMelo Ball posted impressive career-best averages last season with 25.2 points, 7.4 assists, and 3.8 three-pointers per game, stats typically highly coveted in fantasy basketball. However, these figures don`t tell the full story.
While these numbers are strong on paper, a closer look reveals that Deni Avdija and Christian Braun surpassed Ball in total points, Bub Carrington and Scotty Pippen Jr. had more assists, and Gary Trent Jr. made more three-pointers. Critically, 297 other NBA players participated in more games than Ball last season, and 177 logged more minutes.
Ball, an undeniable talent capable of orchestrating an offense with flair, has a recurring issue: his inability to stay on the court. Drafted third overall in 2020, he played 51 games in his rookie year and a surprising 75 in his sophomore season. However, over the last three seasons combined, Ball has only played 105 games, with his 2024-25 campaign cut short in March due to ankle and wrist surgeries.
Despite his undeniable on-court production, Ball`s tally of just 105 games in three seasons is a significant concern. To put this in perspective, Indiana Pacers reserves T.J. McConnell and Obi Toppin each played 102 games last season alone, including playoffs!
Currently projected as a third or fourth-round pick, LaMelo Ball`s Average Draft Position (ADP) seems overly optimistic. While his talent is clear, fantasy success hinges on consistent availability and production. With numerous other durable, productive options available, I recommend passing on Ball. Even in daily fantasy formats where roster manipulation is possible, consistent volume is paramount, and Ball has simply not provided it.
Ball isn`t the only player whose fantasy outlook is hampered by missed games. The following players are also candidates to avoid, as their ADPs often assume a healthier, more active season than is realistic.
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Ja Morant, PG, Memphis Grizzlies (ADP 28.4): Plagued by both injuries and off-court issues, Morant has been limited to just 59 games over the last two seasons, never exceeding 68 games in any single season. Furthermore, his production (points, rebounds, assists) declined last season compared to 2022-23. While Desmond Bane`s departure might open up more opportunities, a third-round ADP is still too high given his history. Morant delivers exciting highlights, but not often enough for a top fantasy pick.
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Zion Williamson, PF, New Orleans Pelicans (ADP 35.3): Williamson played barely more games than the average person last season. While his per-minute scoring is elite, fantasy value demands more court time than the likes of Neemias Queta or Adem Bona. Even in his 70-game season two years ago, his overall production was underwhelming. He`s not a 30 PPG threat, nor does he contribute significantly in rebounds or blocks, and his free throw percentage is a liability. Avoid him in the first five rounds, a sentiment that also applies to Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard, whose missed games and surprisingly modest fantasy output make him a similar risk.
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Joel Embiid, C, Philadelphia 76ers (ADP 56.6): Embiid`s ADP tends to inflate closer to the season, fueled by optimistic reports from the 76ers, only for injuries to inevitably resurface. Last season, he played just 19 games due to a lingering left knee injury, and his performance dipped even when active. While acquiring an MVP-caliber player in the sixth round for even 50 games might seem appealing, the constant uncertainty and management of his health make him a headache. Consider safer options like Myles Turner or Jalen Duren, who are available later.
Injuries are already a problem
Paul George has durability issues and is coming off summer knee surgery. -
Kyrie Irving, PG, Dallas Mavericks: Irving`s return date is uncertain, but it won`t be anytime soon. He suffered a torn left ACL in March. While stashing him in an injured reserve spot might be an option, avoid drafting him within the first 100 picks in standard redraft leagues. Even if he makes it back by the All-Star break, expecting him to play consistently for a playoff contender is unrealistic; he hasn`t played over 60 games since 2018-19.
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Dejounte Murray, PG, Pelicans: After tearing his right Achilles on New Year`s Eve, Murray is projected to return no earlier than January. Even upon his comeback, fantasy managers should temper expectations for his typical production. His scoring already dropped to 17.5 PPG in his initial season with the Pelicans, despite maintaining strong assist and steal numbers. While there`s a place for stashing injured players, early-season picks for those returning mid-season often lead to wasted draft capital as managers lose patience. Unlike players like Jayson Tatum, Damian Lillard, or Tyrese Haliburton, who suffered Achilles tears in the playoffs and are likely out for the full season (making them easy draft day fades), Murray`s situation offers a deceptive hope. Beware of players expected to miss the first few months; they frequently miss more time than initially projected.
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Paul George, PF, Philadelphia 76ers: George`s first season with the 76ers was disappointing. Known for durability issues, he also struggled to integrate into the new offensive system, playing passively with only 13.9 field goal attempts and 16.2 points per game. His numbers may not improve significantly even with a healthier 76ers roster. Furthermore, George is recovering from summer knee surgery, which will likely delay his season debut and push his ADP outside the top 100. While I`d pass on him at his current valuation, like Ball, Morant, Williamson, and Embiid, if his ADP falls significantly, he could offer considerable value.
It`s not always about the injuries
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Mikal Bridges, SF, New York Knicks: Bridges is a paragon of durability, consistently playing every game—a significant asset in fantasy. However, his overall fantasy production is often unremarkable. He offers minimal contributions in rebounds and assists, and despite being a strong real-life defender, this doesn`t consistently translate into high steal or block numbers. While his playing volume is valuable, especially in points leagues, a fifth-round ADP is still too high. Teammate Josh Hart, who excels more in rebounding and passing, presents better value.
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Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Atlanta Hawks: Porzingis` injury history is well-documented, but he`s currently healthy. Nonetheless, expectations for him to reach 20 points and 7 rebounds per game with the Hawks should be tempered. Trae Young`s high usage as point guard and Onyeka Okongwu`s rebounding prowess will limit Porzingis` opportunities. While his ADP has fallen outside the top 50, he might still disappoint fantasy managers even several rounds later.
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John Collins, PF, Clippers: While John Collins averaged a solid 19.2 points and 8.2 rebounds in his 40 games with the Utah Jazz last season, replicating that production on the Clippers will be challenging. His new team features high-usage players like James Harden, key scorers in Bradley Beal and Kawhi Leonard, and Ivica Zubac, who led the NBA in total rebounds last season. Collins` numbers are more likely to resemble his final Hawks season (13.1 PPG, 6.5 RPG), making him a viable pick only much later, perhaps beyond the tenth round.
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Jrue Holiday, PG, Trail Blazers: Despite a distinguished career marked by defensive prowess and two NBA championships, Jrue Holiday`s fantasy relevance has waned, even with an ADP after the tenth round. The Trail Blazers are focused on developing young talent like 2023 No. 3 pick Scoot Henderson. When Holiday inevitably moves to a contending team, his statistics are unlikely to rebound to his Milwaukee Bucks levels. This echoes last year`s warning about Mavericks guard Klay Thompson, who subsequently had his worst season since his rookie year.
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Most Rookies (e.g., Dylan Harper, VJ Edgecombe): Cooper Flagg, the Mavericks` rookie forward, is an exception, expected to make an immediate fantasy impact. However, most rookies struggle to deliver fantasy-relevant statistics in their debut season. Last year`s Rookie of the Year, Stephon Castle of the San Antonio Spurs, only showed consistent production post-All-Star break and didn`t crack the top 100 on the Player Rater. While Flagg is a special talent and likely to be overdrafted, don`t anticipate similar immediate returns from other top picks like Spurs guard Dylan Harper or 76ers guard VJ Edgecombe. While Flagg`s Duke numbers (19.2 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.4 BPG) may not be fully replicated initially, he should still be a strong fantasy asset.
