Last season, only three players achieved impressive averages of at least 18.9 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game. To secure any of these superstars – Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, or Domantas Sabonis – fantasy managers will need a first-round draft pick, potentially even the very first selection.
Atlanta Hawks power forward Jalen Johnson might have joined this elite group if he hadn`t suffered a torn labrum in his left shoulder in January. In his fourth NBA season, Johnson truly emerged, delivering outstanding fantasy statistics, though his season was cut short after just 36 games.
The “Do Not Draft” article in fantasy basketball primarily advises against selecting players based on their average draft position (ADP), while the “Do Draft” list, to a certain extent, serves as its inverse.
If I genuinely believe a player will deliver exceptional numbers, I am prepared to reach a round or more to acquire him. Johnson was one such player last season, and his inclusion in this space was justified by terrific performances. Perhaps this season will see him perform even better, both in terms of health and statistics.
Regardless of whether you participate in ESPN`s standard points format, a rotisserie league, or a categories league, finding draft-day value is crucial. This can mean different things to different people. I prefer to invest in durable, veteran players who are likely to contribute across several statistical categories, especially if they remain under the radar; these players are often centers and point guards.
Johnson, a forward known for accumulating assists, was a top-20 fantasy option before his injury. His current average draft position (ADP) in the fifth round is well below that previous standing. Consequently, he offers excellent value, and he`s not the only player in this category.
Players to Draft Based on Their Average Draft Position (ADP Order)
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James Harden, PG, LA Clippers (ADP: 20.2): The player ranked third in last season`s final ratings turned 36 this summer, but there`s little reason to anticipate a significant drop in his performance. Harden has once again become a fantasy cornerstone, despite his ADP not reflecting this.
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Alperen Sengun, C, Houston Rockets (ADP: 26.9): Sengun hasn`t yet averaged 20 points, 10 rebounds, and 5 assists in a single season, but he`s come close in the last two. Could this be his breakout year? The addition of Kevin Durant shouldn`t negatively impact his statistics.
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Nikola Vucevic, C, Chicago Bulls (ADP: 32.3): His ADP is higher than usual, as fantasy players have finally realized that Vucevic consistently delivers numbers. He`s approaching 35, but this shouldn`t prevent him from achieving his 12th double-double season with efficient shooting.
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Evan Mobley, PF, Cleveland Cavaliers (ADP: 34.3): Mobley still hasn`t reached averages of 20 points and 10 rebounds, but this season could be his breakthrough. This defensive anchor began hitting three-pointers last season and is expected to continue improving.
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Jaren Jackson Jr., C, Memphis Grizzlies (ADP: 46.7): Jackson isn`t a prolific rebounder, despite his 6-foot-10 height, but it`s challenging to find a player who combines steals, blocks, and three-pointers as effectively as he does. Jackson has maintained this level of play for years.
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Austin Reaves, SG, Los Angeles Lakers (ADP: 54.2): While not LeBron James, Reaves significantly improved his scoring, assists, steals, and three-point shooting, with his numbers further boosted by the arrival of Luka Doncic. Reaves finished as the 24th-ranked player overall and represents a steal at his current ADP.
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Julius Randle, PF, Minnesota Timberwolves (ADP: 70.2): We anticipated Randle`s numbers would decline after leaving the Knicks, and they certainly did, but a previously overrated fantasy option has become quite underrated with such a low ADP. Randle still provides ample assists, and he has reduced turnovers and improved his shooting. He has become a considerable bargain.
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Darius Garland, PG, Cleveland Cavaliers (ADP: 79): Three other Cavaliers are projected as top-50 picks, but Garland is slipping, presumably due to his recovery from offseason toe surgery. While I typically avoid players likely to miss the start of the season, a scoring and shooting point guard falling this far in ADP is too significant to overlook.
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Jakob Poeltl, C, Toronto Raptors (ADP: 86.6): In his ninth NBA season, Poeltl achieved career highs in scoring and rebounding, and his increased steals and significant improvement in free-throw shooting are noteworthy. The center position appears to be deep after the initial rounds.
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Brandon Miller, SF, Charlotte Hornets (ADP: 98.4): Miller`s second season was progressing very well, as he averaged 21 points and 3.9 three-pointers per game before a torn wrist ligament ended his season in January. In his third year, Miller could easily perform as a top-50 player.
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Anfernee Simons, SG, Boston Celtics (ADP: 99.6): Scoring shouldn`t be an issue for Simons as he moves to a depleted Boston lineup. While a sudden surge in assists isn`t expected, 20 points per game and numerous three-pointers are typically not available this late in the draft.
Later-Round Draft Targets
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Mark Williams, C, Phoenix Suns (ADP: 103.5): Williams hasn`t played more than 44 games in any of his three NBA seasons, but it`s clear what he`s capable of when healthy. Williams scores, rebounds, and shoots well. Taking a chance or two this late in the draft for significant statistical upside is acceptable.
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T.J. McConnell, PG, Indiana Pacers (ADP: 113): Similar to the Celtics, the Indiana Pacers need production from unexpected sources, as star Tyrese Haliburton (Achilles injury) is out for the season. McConnell is statistically a limited player, but he could be set for career highs in scoring, assists, and potentially minutes.
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Stephon Castle, PG, San Antonio Spurs (ADP: 114.9): The reigning Rookie of the Year may never become an elite outside shooter, but he excels at driving to the basket, and there`s upside for both scoring and defensive statistics. Don`t assume rookie Dylan Harper will hinder his progress.
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Bobby Portis, PF, Milwaukee Bucks (ADP: 120.2): A consistent veteran who typically comes off the bench to score and rebound, the Bucks might require slightly more production this season. The 30-year-old Portis should be capable of delivering.
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Zach Edey, C, Memphis Grizzlies (ADP: 130.2): His rookie season went well, and his second year might be delayed due to recovery from ankle surgery, but again, a player with double-double potential and shot-blocking upside shouldn`t remain undrafted this late.
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Dennis Schroder, PG, Sacramento Kings (ADP: 131.6): Annually underestimated, Schroder joins his ninth franchise this decade alone. Regardless of whether he starts for the Kings, expect enough scoring and assists to justify late-round interest. I find it amusing when fantasy managers overlook seasoned veterans like Schroder in favor of high draft picks. How, for instance, did Rob Dillingham of Minnesota or Reed Sheppard of Houston perform?
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Kel`el Ware, C, Miami Heat (ADP: 132.7): Ware started 36 games as a rookie, averaging a double-double alongside Bam Adebayo, and he can block shots. While 15 points per game shouldn`t be expected, finding a double-digit rebounder after the 10th round is quite rare.
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Kyle Kuzma, PF, Milwaukee Bucks (ADP: 134.9): Largely an overrated fantasy option throughout his career, Kuzma`s ADP is now near rock bottom, making him a stellar value. At this point, we know what to expect from him—primarily around 16 points per game—but that`s sufficient this late in the draft.
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Matas Buzelis, SF, Chicago Bulls (ADP: 136.1): As a rookie, Buzelis averaged 13 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks per game with efficient shooting, and his minutes and production are expected to continue rising in his second season. Skip him at pick No. 100, as he typically goes much later in drafts.
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Isaiah Collier, PG, Utah Jazz (ADP: 139.4): Collier isn`t a strong shooter, though he should show improvements in his second season. Any player with the potential to be a starting point guard for an NBA franchise is worth a late or last-round pick.
