The NBA journey for Cooper Flagg has officially commenced. As widely anticipated, the highly-rated rookie forward from Duke was selected first overall by the Dallas Mavericks this past Wednesday. Many consider him one of the premier prospects of the current millennium.
So, what level of performance can we anticipate from him during his initial NBA season?
Initially, we`ll examine how he fits into the Mavericks` current roster composition. Following that, we`ll conduct a brief historical comparison with players possessing comparable skill sets. Finally, we`ll discuss his potential draft position in fantasy basketball leagues this autumn.
Flagg`s Fit with the Mavericks
The Mavericks present a notable opportunity for a rookie forward, perhaps more than one might expect from a successful team. With Luka Doncic having been traded and Kyrie Irving sidelined due to a torn ACL, the team features strong big men (like Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively II, Daniel Gafford, P.J. Washington) and capable shooters (such as Klay Thompson, Spencer Dinwiddie, Max Christie), but lacks primary offensive creators and scoring from the wing positions.
Consequently, Flagg could be asked to contribute significantly to the Mavs` offense from day one. He should have the chance to earn substantial minutes and handle the ball extensively right from the start. Combining this opportunity with Flagg`s evident talent – which an analyst suggested would have allowed him to be effective in the NBA even at age 16 – positions Flagg well to deliver impactful statistics immediately.
Further details about Flagg`s role will emerge over the summer, particularly concerning how the Mavericks` roster evolves after free agency. We will likely see Flagg compete professionally for the first time in the NBA Summer League in Las Vegas.
All this forthcoming information will refine our official projections for Flagg`s rookie year, which will become available in a few months.
Nevertheless, based on his performance in college, we already have a solid understanding of what to expect from Flagg. These expectations align with those of a player capable of making an immediate impact in fantasy basketball.
Comparisons to Notable Duke Alumni
Similarities to Grant Hill
Like Grant Hill, Flagg enters the league as a versatile big wing with excellent physical attributes and the ability to contribute across multiple statistical categories on both offense and defense. Hill was a more seasoned prospect, playing four years at Duke and entering the NBA at 22. However, Flagg`s statistics from his freshman season at Duke were quite comparable to Hill`s senior year figures. Despite being significantly younger at 18, Flagg appears similarly prepared for the transition to the professional game.
Similarities to Jayson Tatum
Jayson Tatum is another big wing who possesses the size of a combo forward but plays more like a perimeter player. He is also more of a shooter and less of a natural playmaker than Hill. Flagg, in many ways, blends the styles of these two fellow Duke alumni. While not the innate point forward that Hill was, Flagg demonstrates better creation and distribution skills than Tatum did upon entering the NBA. Similarly, although Flagg would need to develop to reach Tatum`s current shooting proficiency, he is a superior shooter coming out of Duke than either Hill or Tatum were at that stage.
Here is a comparison of each player`s final season statistics at Duke:
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | 3P | FG% | FT% | 3P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hill | 17.4 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 46.0 | 69.4 | 37.9 |
| Tatum | 16.8 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 45.2 | 85.4 | 35.0 |
| Flagg | 19.2 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 48.5 | 82.8 | 38.9 |
And this table presents rookie statistics for Tatum and Hill, alongside projections for Flagg`s rookie season, based on a college-to-pro transition similar to his predecessors:
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | 3P | FG% | FT% | 3P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hill | 19.9 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 48.0 | 72.6 | 25.0 |
| Tatum | 13.9 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 48.1 | 84.4 | 43.3 |
| Flagg | 19.0 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 51.1 | 84.0 | 36.4 |
Fantasy Draft Value for Cooper Flagg
The projection for Flagg`s 3-point production shown above was adjusted, as it`s improbable in today`s NBA game that his volume of three-point attempts would decrease upon joining the league. This projection might even be conservative regarding his 3-point frequency, but overall, these figures serve as good indicators of the type of production one might expect from Flagg as a first-year player.
These projected numbers suggest he should be a top-40 option in fantasy leagues during his rookie campaign.
In points-based fantasy formats, these averages would place Flagg around the 28th position. Among players eligible at small forward, this would position him between players like Jaylen Brown and Franz Wagner.
For category-based leagues, Flagg`s predicted comprehensive production, combined with solid shooting percentages and relatively low turnovers, is sufficient to rank him within the top 25. Among small forwards, he slots in between Kevin Durant (ranked 16th) and Jalen Williams (ranked 30th).
This analysis implies that he should be selected within the initial four rounds of fantasy basketball drafts.
