Cooper Flagg’s Future: MVPs, NBA Titles, and His Impact in Dallas

Cooper Flagg, widely considered the most promising American basketball prospect since LeBron James, was destined for significant attention irrespective of where he was drafted. His selection by the Dallas Mavericks, a team that experienced an unexpected surge of lottery luck after a tumultuous season, amplifies this fascination. This unique situation places Flagg in a rare position: a No. 1 overall pick capable of contributing to a competitive team from his rookie season. As Mavericks general manager Nico Harrison stated at Flagg`s July introductory press conference, “We`re in win-now mode, and so he adds to that, but he`s also the future of the franchise.” This raises many questions: How successful will the Mavericks be during Flagg`s rookie year and beyond, especially with their current roster of veteran future Hall of Famers? How quickly will he achieve All-Star status? And do MVP awards and NBA championships lie in Flagg`s professional future?

Where the Dallas Mavericks will finish in 2025-26 with Cooper Flagg

Consider this intriguing fact: When was the last time a No. 1 overall draft pick participated in the NBA playoffs during their rookie season? It was a tie in the 2017-18 season, with Markelle Fultz and Ben Simmons of the Philadelphia 76ers. The “Process” strategy finally yielded playoff success during Simmons` first active year, largely due to Joel Embiid significantly increasing his games played. Thus, for a top pick to reach the playoffs early in their career, unusual circumstances are usually required. Flagg`s situation with the Mavericks certainly fits this description. Just months after an NBA Finals appearance, the team surprisingly traded a perennial MVP candidate in his prime, a move the General Manager described as “win-now.” The team then stumbled into the lottery, converting slim 1.8% odds into the top pick. Flagg is expected to be an immediate starter, but he won`t bear the sole burden of leading the team as a rookie, thanks to a roster of seasoned veterans. A key figure among them is former No. 1 pick and 10-time All-Star Anthony Davis, who was the cornerstone of the trade for Luka Doncic. The Mavericks` playoff prospects will heavily depend on the readiness and performance of another former No. 1 pick and future Hall of Famer: Kyrie Irving. His return from a torn left ACL and his ability to regain All-Star offensive form will be crucial for the team`s success.

Forecasted Team Finish for 2025-26 Season:

• Outside the postseason (No. 11-15): 3.8%
• In the play-in (7-10): 73.1%
• In the playoffs (5-6): 23.1%
• Home court in the playoffs (4 or higher): 0%

How many series will Flagg, Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving win together in Dallas?

A significant majority, nearly two-thirds of experts surveyed, predict that Cooper Flagg, Anthony Davis, and Kyrie Irving will win two or fewer playoff series together during Flagg`s career in Dallas. Conversely, roughly 15% of the experts offered a more optimistic outlook, forecasting at least four playoff series victories for this core. This more conservative estimate seems logical given Irving`s ongoing rehabilitation from a torn ACL sustained in March, combined with the respective ages of Irving (33) and Davis (32). From an age perspective, these veterans are likely nearing the end of their physical primes. The Mavericks` current window for contention is immediate. However, Irving will likely require time to fully recover and regain his form. Similarly, despite Flagg`s immense talent and skill, he is still a rookie, a phase where even the most refined players often face challenges or experience a `rookie wall.` While their potential isn`t confined to just this upcoming season, the sooner the Mavericks secure a series win with this core, and the sooner all three key players can consistently be healthy on the court, the greater their chances of exceeding these current predictions.

Total Playoff Series Wins for Flagg, Davis, and Irving Core in Dallas:

• 0: 7.7%
• 1: 30.8%
• 2: 26.9%
• 3: 19.2%
• 4: 3.8%
• 5: 7.7%
• 6 or more: 3.8%

When will Cooper Flagg make his first All-Star appearance?

Experts` predictions suggest it`s highly improbable that Flagg will earn an All-Star selection in his rookie season. Blake Griffin remains the sole rookie All-Star of the last two decades, notably after a `redshirt` year due to knee surgery. The format of future All-Star games is also uncertain; a potential USA vs. World structure could intensify competition for American players like Flagg due to the profound talent pool. However, second-year All-Stars are a more frequent occurrence, with eight players achieving this in the last eight years, including Victor Wembanyama, Paolo Banchero, and Luka Doncic. Furthermore, a significant number of star-caliber players reach this elite status by their third year. Consequently, our panel is largely confident that Flagg will at least achieve All-Star recognition by that point in his career.

Projected First All-Star Appearance:

• 2025-26 (Rookie Year): 3.8%
• 2026-27 (Second Year): 30.8%
• 2027-28 (Third Year): 57.7%
• 2028-29 (Fourth Year): 7.7%

How many MVP awards will Cooper Flagg win?

It`s important to acknowledge that it`s improbable for Flagg to be the American player who breaks the current seven-year streak of international players winning the NBA MVP award; other American stars like Anthony Edwards or Jayson Tatum appear better positioned for this. This doesn`t, however, rule out Flagg winning an MVP eventually. Yet, observations from sources at the NBA summer league highlighted minor areas in Flagg`s game that he will need to refine during his initial years in the league to ascend to his projected elite level. Beyond that, various external factors, outside his direct control, will influence his MVP chances, including team success, media perception, and the performance of his contemporaries. Given his status as the most promising American No. 1 pick since LeBron James and his well-rounded game, Flagg possesses the attributes to consistently attract MVP consideration. His two-way capabilities and appealing style of play position him as a strong candidate for multiple MVP awards over a lengthy career. Nevertheless, numerous external variables complicate this outlook. For instance, even a former Mavericks franchise cornerstone like Luka Doncic, whose career was widely expected to include multiple MVPs, is still pursuing his first.

Predicted Number of MVP Awards:

• 0: 34.6%
• 1: 46.2%
• 2: 15.4%
• 3: 0%
• 4 or more: 3.8%

How many NBA titles will Cooper Flagg win?

Securing an NBA championship is an arduous feat, even for a No. 1 overall pick. Cooper Flagg is the 41st top pick in the lottery era; historically, only 10 of the first 40 (25%) have gone on to win a title. While this percentage could increase as more recent No. 1 picks mature (Andrew Wiggins, drafted in 2014, was the most recent to win a championship), history generally suggests the odds are stacked against Flagg ever claiming a title. In this era, only Tim Duncan, LeBron James, Shaquille O`Neal, and David Robinson have won multiple championships as No. 1 picks. However, several factors work in Flagg`s favor, distinguishing him from the average top pick. He enters the NBA with a higher projection than most top prospects, which is significant for postseason success: among the 15 No. 1 lottery-era picks with multiple All-NBA selections, seven (47%) have secured titles, with potential for more. Furthermore, the Mavericks` roster is significantly more talented than the typical rebuilding teams that usually secure the first draft pick. Most No. 1 picks require the support of other top-tier talents to win championships; for example, Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis, and Dwight Howard all won alongside LeBron James, while David Robinson and Glenn Robinson triumphed with Tim Duncan. This crucial context highlights Flagg`s unique starting position: he will soon play alongside Davis and Irving, two former No. 1 picks who have already converted their draft status into championship rings.

Predicted Number of NBA Titles:

• 0: 7.7%
• 1: 76.9%
• 2: 7.7%
• 3: 7.7%
• 4 or more: 0%

How many teams will Cooper Flagg play for in his career?

Dirk Nowitzki`s legendary career established a precedent for a Dallas Mavericks star to remain with the franchise his entire career, with Nowitzki spending an unprecedented 21 seasons with a single NBA team. The Mavericks are likely highly motivated to retain Flagg for the long term, particularly given fan dissatisfaction following the trade of Luka Doncic, who was widely seen as Nowitzki`s natural successor. However, predicting that any modern NBA player will spend their entire career with one team is increasingly unrealistic. Among players who debuted in the 21st century, only four from the top 50 scorers (Stephen Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Devin Booker, and Nikola Jokic) have consistently played for a single franchise. Even some of these `one-franchise` players could still move before their careers conclude. Recent NBA history strongly indicates that Flagg will likely play for more than one team during his career.

Predicted Number of Teams Played For:

• 1 (Dallas): 3.8%
• 2: 53.8%
• 3: 34.6%
• 4 or more: 7.7%

Where will Cooper Flagg land in the 2025 NBA player rank?

It`s uncommon for a rookie to even enter the Top 100 player rankings, but Flagg possesses the potential to make a significant impact on games and secure such a spot. The primary question isn`t whether he`ll be included, but rather the degree of optimism among experts regarding his specific ranking. My personal tendency is to be conservative when evaluating a rookie`s immediate season impact. While the draft process focuses on a prospect`s eventual career peak, the initial learning curve in the NBA is unpredictable, and each player adapts uniquely. Flagg, however, stands out from most prospects; he is accustomed to excelling despite being young for his level and demonstrated his readiness for elite competition at Duke. Although Dallas is unlikely to overload him with primary playmaking responsibilities, and Flagg may not be immediately prepared for such a burden, his defensive prowess, passing ability, and tenacity will be invaluable as he adapts within a team committed to competitiveness. Without overthinking, I would place Flagg in the 76-100 range. The collective opinion of our panel appears more optimistic at this juncture. The mere fact that this discussion is taking place already underscores his exceptional quality and promising future.

Predicted 2025 NBA Player Rank:

• Top 25: 0%
• 26-50: 15.4%
• 51-75: 53.8%
• 76-100: 30.8%