Betting Buzz: Stephen Curry Injury Shifts Warriors-Timberwolves Game 2 Line by Five Points

Events in the sports world often have significant implications for sports betting. Key news, such as season-altering injuries or record-breaking performances, constantly influences the betting market. This “betting buzz” report highlights the top stories impacting sports betting discussions.

May 7: Stephen Curry`s Injury Moves Game 2 Line by Five Points

David Purdum: The Golden State Warriors remained slight underdogs in their playoff series against the Minnesota Timberwolves as oddsmakers monitored the hamstring strain Stephen Curry suffered early in the Warriors` Game 1 victory on Tuesday.

The Warriors were approximately +140 underdogs to win the series on Wednesday at sportsbooks, with the Timberwolves listed at -165. A BetMGM spokesperson stated their trading team is taking a `wait-and-see` approach to Curry’s injury, adding that the Timberwolves would become significant favorites in the series if he were ruled out.

Second Round Series Odds

ESPN BET`s trading director Adrian Horton noted that typically, a road team winning Game 1 would significantly shift series odds, but the uncertainty surrounding Curry`s injury kept the price steady with the Timberwolves remaining favorites.

“If Curry was confirmed healthy, we`d typically expect something closer to even, or the Warriors even being favored to win the series,” Horton said. “The fact that the Timberwolves remain favored indicates the uncertainty around his status, especially given Steve Kerr`s comments on Tuesday that he is unlikely to play on Thursday.`”

Minnesota was a 10.5-point favorite in Thursday`s Game 2, an increase of four to five points from the Game 1 line.

“Golden State closed as a 5.5-point underdog in Game 1, and after winning yesterday, a healthy roster would typically move the line closer for the next matchup,” Horton said. “Instead, the jump to Wolves -9.5 reflects expectations that Curry may sit for a game or two, and with early action, we`re already out to Wolves -10.5 on Wednesday morning.`”

Fanatics Sportsbook reported refunding $500,000 in prop bets on Curry due to the injury as part of their `Fair Play` policy. One customer won $224,773 from a $5,000 four-leg parlay; the promotion nullified the leg involving Curry scoring 28-plus points, allowing the customer to cash out on the other three winning legs.

May 6: Stars, Jets Advance After Overcoming Significant Live Odds

Doug Greenberg: Heading into last weekend, NHL teams facing a multi-goal deficit in the third period of a Stanley Cup Playoffs Game 7 had won only three times previously. By the end of the postseason`s first round, both the Dallas Stars and Winnipeg Jets had achieved this rare feat, overcoming immense in-game odds to reach the second round.

At their longest points, Dallas had +2000 live odds to beat the Colorado Avalanche, while Winnipeg had +2500 live odds in the closing minutes of regulation against the St. Louis Blues.

Round 2 Series Odds

Before the playoffs began, Colorado was the slight favorite to win the Cup at +700 odds, just ahead of the defending champion Florida Panthers (+750). The Avalanche received significant support across sportsbooks, finishing with high handle percentages for championship futures. St. Louis was a much longer shot at 50-1.

The reward for the Stars and Jets for winning their first-round series is facing each other in the second round. For the Stars, this follows weeks of fluctuations: after acquiring Mikko Rantanen, Dallas became +600 co-favorites for the Cup, but fell to +1100 after a seven-game losing streak to end the regular season. The Stars are now once again among the Cup favorites with +400 odds.

Winnipeg, meanwhile, is tied for the longest odds remaining to win it all (+900), a surprising turn given they ended the regular season with one of the best records in their conference.

Bettors are not giving Winnipeg much chance, as Dallas has attracted the vast majority of bets and money for the series (-175). Since the weekend, the Stars have received more action to win the Stanley Cup than any other team at major sportsbooks.

Odds & Ends (NHL)

• Going into the second round, no team with home ice advantage was favored to win its series, a first in this round in over 30 years. After a victory over Florida, the home-team Toronto Maple Leafs moved to -125 favorites in their series.
• Colorado`s Nathan MacKinnon was heavily backed to win the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP, representing a significant liability for bookmakers.
• Although a Canadian team hasn`t won the Stanley Cup in 32 years, they remain popular bets: the Edmonton Oilers attracted a leading percentage of bets and handle at one sportsbook, while the Maple Leafs were also popular among remaining teams.

May 5: Warriors` Record Playoff Streak of Being Favored Set to End

David Purdum: The Golden State Warriors have been favored in all 27 playoff series under head coach Steve Kerr, the longest streak since the 1976 ABA/NBA merger. This streak was poised to end this week.

The Warriors are +150 underdogs to win their Western Conference semifinal series against the Minnesota Timberwolves. This is the first time Golden State has not been favored in a series since the first round in 2014.

Sportsbooks opened the Timberwolves at -190 favorites Sunday night, with the price dropping slightly by Monday morning. Minnesota was a 6.5-point favorite in Tuesday`s Game 1. The Timberwolves will be looking to become the first team to eliminate both LeBron James and Stephen Curry in the same postseason.

Golden State won three of four meetings with Minnesota this season. Notably, Jimmy Butler, acquired midseason by the Warriors, did not play in any of the games against the Timberwolves.

NBA Playoffs Odds & Ends

• Despite dropping Game 1, the Cleveland Cavaliers remained favorites in their semifinal series against the Indiana Pacers (-210 favorites).
• The Oklahoma City Thunder (-900) began their series against the Denver Nuggets (+500) with eight days of rest, while the Nuggets had only two days after winning their first-round series. Since 2004, teams with a seven-plus-day rest advantage are undefeated straight-up and against the spread, winning by a significant margin. The Thunder were 9.5-point favorites in Game 1.

April 30: Betting Surge on Browns After NFL Draft

Purdum: The Cleveland Browns, following a draft that drew mixed reactions, are 10-1 underdogs to make the playoffs, among the biggest long shots. Their season-win total is set at 4.5, the lowest of any team. Despite this, bettors are showing confidence in the Browns.

Sportsbooks reported increased interest in the Browns after the draft. Cleveland was popular in win totals, with a high percentage of money wagered on over 4.5 wins. For the Super Bowl, only a few teams had attracted more bets than the Browns, who are listed at 200-1. Cleveland has also attracted more bets to win their division than any other rival.

At 10-1, the Browns are the biggest preseason playoff long shots in the league for the first time since 2016. They have quarterback uncertainty, with Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, and rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders expected to compete for the starting role.

Shedeur Sanders is 15-1 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, tied for one of the shortest odds in the market. He was attracting significant support, with a large percentage of the money wagered on Offensive Rookie of the Year odds being on Sanders.

“We expect Shedeur Sanders to be among the most-bet-on players to win Offensive Rookie of the Year due to his name recognition and odds,” stated a trading manager. “The Browns quarterback is the biggest liability to win the award.”

April 29: Pennsylvania Joins Online Poker Liquidity Compact

Purdum: American online poker`s liquidity increased this week as Pennsylvania joined New Jersey, Michigan, Nevada, and Delaware in a multi-state agreement. This allows players to compete across jurisdictions for shared online prize pools.

Caesars Entertainment announced it was expanding its World Series of Poker platform into Pennsylvania, becoming the first operator to allow players from four states to compete for shared prize pools. WSOP also offers online poker in Nevada, New Jersey, and Michigan.

This expansion precedes poker`s busiest time, culminating in the World Series of Poker Main Event in Las Vegas in July. An online tournament schedule kicks off in May and runs alongside the live WSOP event. Players can participate in online tournaments while simultaneously competing in person in Las Vegas.

“The addition of the Pennsylvania player pool to WSOP Online comes at the perfect time,” said a Vice President at Caesars Entertainment. “This expansion enhances the experience for players by building even greater prize pools… We`re ready to see who earns our largest online prize pools ever once the first hands are dealt this summer.”

April 24: Betting Big to Win Small on No. 1 Draft Picks

Purdum: On a Thursday night last April, a college student named Zach Opengart was more focused on a bet he had placed across state lines than on his bowling league championship. He had wagered $11,311.52 on quarterback Caleb Williams to be the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft at extremely low odds (-20,000).

Opengart was nervous, having risked a large part of his funds, but confident the Chicago Bears would select Williams first. When the commissioner announced Williams as the No. 1 pick, Opengart won $56 from his significant wager, and his bowling team also won their league title.

Betting markets for events like the NFL draft are known for volatility and often feature extreme odds, challenging bookmakers and forcing bettors to decide if risking a lot for a small return is worthwhile. Odds for quarterback Cam Ward to be the No. 1 pick this year reached as low as -50,000, meaning a $50,000 bet would yield only a $100 profit. While major wagers at these extreme odds are uncommon, they have occurred in past drafts.

“Information events like the NFL draft are really tricky when it comes to offering odds,” a head of football trading commented. “When it appears that a team is set on drafting a player with the first pick, we will offer odds that closely reflect the 99.99% probability of something like that happening.”

Opengart stated that this high level of certainty is what attracts him to betting on heavy favorites. He felt the Williams bet was a “sure thing.”

While he doesn`t plan to risk such a large portion of his bankroll again, he continues to bet on big favorites, though not always successfully. Opengart lost a substantial amount trying to win around $100 on a college football bet where a heavily favored team lost outright.

“It was brutal, but I always say with betting, especially my style, that you have to have the memory of a goldfish,” Opengart said. “The only thing that matters is the long-term return.”

“I`m the type of person, if you`ll give me a free 50 bucks … I`ll take it every time, get myself a steak dinner and be happy about it.”

Opengart mentioned his next “steak dinner bet” is planned for Cooper Flagg to be the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft.