Are Excessive 3-Pointers Detrimental to the NBA? League’s View

The Boston Celtics, the reigning champions, ignited a debate at the season opener against the New York Knicks by attempting 61 three-pointers, the second-highest in NBA history for a regulation game. This game sparked a season-long discussion about whether there are too many 3-point attempts in basketball.

The trend isn`t limited to Boston. After holding steady at around 35 three-point attempts per game for the last half-decade—already a 50% increase from a decade prior—the rate has risen to 37.5 attempts per game in the 2024-25 season. Amidst declining national TV ratings early in the season, the increased focus on 3-pointers became a readily available explanation for viewership issues.

Currently, NBA analysis suggests that fans generally hold a positive view of the league`s style of play and the frequency of 3-point shots. Consequently, substantial rule changes are unlikely in the near future.

However, Daryl Morey, a key figure in the 3-point revolution and president of basketball operations for the Philadelphia 76ers, voiced concerns at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. He stated that the game might be worsening due to the over-reliance on 3-pointers.

Let`s examine the data surrounding 3-point attempts, Morey`s argument about their excessive value, and fan opinions on the current state of the game.

The Celtics Set a New Pace and Narrative

Just a year ago, it wasn`t definitively clear that prioritizing 3-pointers was the optimal strategy for NBA teams. Teams had already capitalized on the obvious advantage of converting open 2-point shots into 3-point attempts. During Morey`s tenure with the Houston Rockets, focusing on 3-pointers was an innovative, almost unfair advantage.

Between 2004-05 and 2018-19, teams attempting the most 3-pointers won 52% of the time, a significant edge. However, this trend reversed. In the 2023-24 regular season, teams taking more 3-pointers won only 48% of games, marking the fourth time in five years this win rate fell below 50%.

However, the trend shifted again. In the 2024 playoffs, teams attempting more 3-pointers had a .646 win percentage, and the two teams with the highest 3-point attempt rates during the regular season, Boston and Dallas, met in the Finals, with Boston winning.

Starting with the Celtics` record-tying 29 three-pointers on opening night—and their attempts to break the record in the final minutes—it became clear that 3-point attempts would continue to rise.

Evan Wasch, NBA executive VP of strategy and analytics, noted the impact of that Celtics game on the season`s narrative. He suggested that a single game might have significantly shaped the subsequent discussion about 3-pointers throughout the season.

The decline in NBA national TV viewership in the first two months of the season further fueled the discussion. Several NBA doubleheaders coincided with the highly anticipated World Series between the Dodgers and Yankees, potentially drawing viewers away.

Wasch explained that these lower ratings provided an opportunity to blame 3-point volume for viewership decline, despite lacking direct evidence. This narrative gained traction and might have influenced fan perception. NBA surveys and social media analysis indicated growing fan frustration with the number of 3-pointers and the overall style of play as the season progressed.

Wasch acknowledged that fan perception might be lagging or influenced by the ongoing conversation. Regardless, it`s undeniable that 3-point attempts are at an all-time high in the NBA, and Morey believes he understands why.

Is It Time to Adjust the 3-Point Line?

Morey`s call to reduce 3-point attempts at the Sloan panel, titled “Have the Nerds Ruined Basketball?”, is notable given his history as a pioneer of 3-point strategy. Apart from Stephen Curry, Morey is arguably most associated with the rise in 3-point frequency. He designed the Rockets to aggressively pursue long-range shots, a strategy only recently matched by teams like the Celtics.

Starting in the G League with Rio Grande Valley, Houston experimented with eliminating most 2-point attempts outside the paint while playing at a fast tempo. The Rockets became the first NBA team to attempt more 3-pointers than 2-pointers, achieving a franchise-record 65 wins in 2017-18. “Moreyball,” a term combining his name and “Moneyball,” became synonymous with this style of play.

Morey`s concern isn`t necessarily with the current volume of 3-pointers, but with the game`s design. He argues that the significant point advantage of the 3-pointer was initially necessary to incentivize long-range shooting, given the lower accuracy rates at the time.

It took until the eighth year of the 3-pointer (1986-87) for the NBA to collectively shoot above 30% from beyond the arc. It wasn`t until 1992-93 that the league`s 3-point percentage made the average 3-pointer more valuable than a 2-pointer.

Currently, with players shooting 36% on 3-pointers, each attempt yields about 1.07 points. To equal this value with 2-pointers, players would need to shoot 53.5%. This is why Morey discourages mid-range 2-pointers, where the league-wide average is around 42%—only slightly better than 3-point accuracy despite being worth 50% less.

Morey believes that when wide-open mid-range shots from top players are less valuable than heavily contested 3-pointers, it negatively impacts the game. He urges the league to consider adjustments as teams will naturally optimize for the highest point-value shots.

However, most league executives aren`t as concerned about 3-point volume. Their primary focus remains building winning teams, not necessarily crafting the most aesthetically pleasing game.

Morey acknowledges that teams and analysts are simply doing their jobs by optimizing for wins. However, he reiterates that the 3-point shot`s 50% point bonus, introduced decades ago, is now excessive and “breaks the game.”

Wasch, representing the NBA`s perspective, countered that game design should prioritize fan entertainment. The NBA`s data still indicates that fans are more positive than negative about the prevalence of 3-point shooting.

NBA Not Concerned About 3-Point Volume – For Now

NBA Commissioner Adam Silver has acknowledged the possibility of adjusting rules to influence playing style, including the 3-point line.

Silver mentioned at the NBA Cup final last December that historically, the 3-point line has been moved. However, he doesn`t believe moving it is the current solution, suggesting it might not increase mid-range shots but instead lead to more congested play near the basket.

He also noted that offensive strategies can become repetitive, with teams emulating each other, which is something the league is monitoring.

By the All-Star Game in February, Silver expressed a more positive outlook on the state of NBA gameplay.

He stated that while the league is closely monitoring the situation and open to improvements, he is currently satisfied with the game`s condition.

Wasch`s summary of fan research echoed this sentiment, indicating generally positive fan reception of the 3-point revolution, pace and space, player athleticism, and shots around the basket.

He acknowledged the open question of whether the league is approaching a point of diminishing returns with 3-pointers, potentially alienating some fans. However, he doesn`t believe there`s a fundamental flaw in the game`s design, emphasizing that fan enjoyment is the ultimate measure of success.

League surveys show younger fans are even more positive about the current style and 3-point volume than older fans, although Wasch noted this difference isn`t statistically significant. However, public discourse often exaggerates the uniformity of team styles due to the prevalence of 3-pointers.

Celtics VP Mike Zarren at the Sloan conference criticized the narrative that teams are becoming homogenous by “jacking 3s.” He argued that this perception is inaccurate and doesn`t reflect the nuances of team strategies beyond just 3-point shooting.

Could 3-Point Attempts Increase Further?

Wasch mentioned that their analysis of play diversity across teams shows no significant change from previous seasons. The variation in 3-point attempt rates between teams like Boston and Denver remains consistent with historical averages since 1996-97; it`s the overall average, not the spread, that has shifted.

Interestingly, the Celtics` 3-point frequency has slightly decreased since the season`s start. In the first 25 games, they averaged 51.3 attempts, 56% of their total shots. Since then, it`s dropped to 46.5 attempts, or 52% of shots.

Similar to the “Moreyball” Rockets, the Celtics` playoff performance, as a likely top seed in the East, will be a key indicator in the debate about excessive 3-pointers. Even a loss to a high 3-point shooting team like Cleveland could contribute to this discussion.

Conversely, a deep playoff run by a team like the Denver Nuggets, known for offensive efficiency but not 3-point volume, might highlight that multiple paths to offensive success exist.

Regardless, 3-point attempts are likely to increase further. Younger players, particularly those taking 3-pointers off the dribble, are driving this trend. Victor Wembanyama, in his second NBA season, is attempting nearly nine 3-pointers per game—more than Ray Allen ever did in a season.

Eventually, the NBA will run out of mid-range 2-pointers to convert into 3-pointers. The idea that teams are choosing 3-pointers over layups or dunks is a misconception. Data shows the rate of shots in the paint has remained consistent over the past 12 years, even increasing recently.

Despite the theory that defenses will over-adjust to 3-pointers, making mid-range shots more valuable, the only proven method to reduce 3-point attempts in other leagues has been moving the 3-point line further back.

In NCAA Division I men`s basketball, 3-pointers were a higher percentage of shots than in the NBA until the line was moved back in 2019-20 to FIBA distance. This change reduced 3-point attempts in college, while the NBA continues to see increases.

It`s possible 3-pointers could become half of all shots in the NBA. However, for now, the league doesn`t see current 3-point rates as problematic.

Wasch concluded that the NBA acts decisively when data clearly indicates a need for change. While acknowledging potential for adjustments, he emphasizes that drastic changes aren`t currently deemed necessary or supported by a stakeholder consensus.