For the last three years, Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek have consistently held the top two positions in the WTA rankings, trading places at the pinnacle of the tour.
Although Sabalenka currently holds a significant lead of over 3,000 points in the PIF WTA Rankings, she is still keeping a close watch on World No. 2 Swiatek.
Following her straight-sets victory (6-3, 6-4) over Anna Blinkova on Friday, Sabalenka offered a detailed assessment of Swiatek`s hard-fought three-set win against 19-year-old Alexandra Eala the previous day. Swiatek had to overcome a set and a break deficit in that match.
Speaking to reporters, Sabalenka commented on the match: “Yeah, it was great match. Honestly, I think Iga didn’t really start well, she was missing a lot. But then she played calm and started playing much better, put a lot of pressure on Eala and got the win. Nice comeback for Iga after really tough start.”
Sabalenka and Swiatek have a history of meeting in the Mutua Madrid Open final, having contested the last two championships (Sabalenka won in 2023, Swiatek in 2024). They are widely considered favorites to reach the final once again.
Discussing a potential rematch, Sabalenka laughed, saying, “It’s kind of like really far, talking about the final. When you make it to the final, we can talk about that. Of course I’d like to play another final against her. It’s always kind of like leg-busters. It’s really cool to play and hopefully really cool to watch for people.”
However, for Swiatek, more is at stake in Madrid than just advancing through the draw. She risks leaving the tournament not only without the title but also potentially losing her World No. 2 ranking.
Swiatek has been ranked inside the Top 2 every week since March 21, 2022, an impressive streak that is now under threat. Both Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff have mathematical chances to overtake her depending on their results in Madrid:
- If Swiatek loses in the Round of 32: Pegula passes if she reaches the semifinals, and Gauff passes if she reaches the final.
- If Swiatek loses in the Round of 16: Pegula passes if she reaches the semifinals, and Gauff passes if she reaches the final.
- If Swiatek loses in the Quarterfinals: Pegula passes if she reaches the final, and Gauff passes if she reaches the final.
- If Swiatek loses in the Semifinals: Pegula passes if she reaches the final, and Gauff passes if she wins the title.
Should Swiatek reach the final:
- Pegula can only pass her by winning the title.
- Gauff would no longer be able to surpass her.
If Swiatek wins the title, she will secure her World No. 2 ranking.
If Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff meet for the title, the winner would climb to the World No. 2 spot. For Pegula, this would be her career-first time ranked inside the Top 2. Gauff`s most recent appearance at World No. 2 was on August 12, 2024.
Meanwhile, Swiatek is keeping her focus squarely on her game. After her difficult opening match against Eala, she immediately returned to the practice courts, spending about 30 minutes refining her movement and timing, which she felt were inconsistent during the match.
Swiatek explained her decision, stating, “I just felt like there are some stuff I need to work on, and it was best to do it right after, so the body can remember the good movement. It`s good that I had the opportunity to do that.”
She also acknowledged that adjusting to Madrid`s altitude continues to present difficulties.
Describing the adjustment, she said, “It’s never so easy to adjust. The first practices were much colder. Yesterday it was hotter, so the feelings were totally different. The balls were flying a little bit out of control from my racquet, so I got the tension a little bit higher in the second set, and then it was better.”
Rather than dwelling on overanalyzing the match, Swiatek stated her priority was reinforcing positive habits.
“Sometimes when you’re not starting well it takes a little more time to find your game,” she commented. “But then I did, so I`m glad.”
