The NHL is set to begin the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs on Monday night, starting with the Toronto Maple Leafs hosting the defending champion Florida Panthers. The Maple Leafs are aiming to end the league`s longest championship drought, while the Panthers recently eliminated their state rival, the Tampa Bay Lightning. A team from Florida has reached the Stanley Cup Final in each of the last five seasons.
In the Eastern Conference, the Carolina Hurricanes will travel north to face the Metropolitan Division winners, the Washington Capitals. This series is scheduled to start on Tuesday.
Tuesday night also features the Western Conference semifinal between the Edmonton Oilers and the Vegas Golden Knights.
The Dallas Stars and Winnipeg Jets both secured their spots in dramatic Game 7 victories and are scheduled to open their semifinal series on Wednesday.
With the matchups determined, Sean Allen (covering the East) and Victoria Matiash (covering the West) provide their top betting picks for each series, along with predictions for the Conn Smythe Trophy (awarded to the playoff MVP).
Florida Panthers vs Toronto Maple Leafs
Game 1: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario; Monday, 8 p.m. ET
- Game 1 puck Line: Maple Leafs +1.5 (-265), Panthers -1.5 (+190)
- Series winner: Maple Leafs (+150), Panthers (-175)
- Series length: Four games (+600), five games (+270), six games (+200), seven games (+180)
Best bets: The Maple Leafs successfully overcame some previous playoff struggles in Round 1, pushing through despite a few tense moments. The Panthers took the regular-season series 3-1, but this playoff matchup is expected to be highly competitive, with the fine details making the difference.
While both teams possess two strong scoring lines capable of matching up well, the performance of their lower lines might sway momentum. Florida`s third line of Anton Lundell, Brad Marchand, and Eetu Luostarinen proved difficult for the Tampa Bay Lightning to handle in the first round. The question is whether the Maple Leafs` bottom six forwards can rise to that challenge.
Given that the oddsmakers favor the Panthers despite Toronto having home ice for Game 1, there`s a chance to bet on Toronto winning Game 1 while still picking Florida to win the series with enhanced odds. Betting on the Maple Leafs to win Game 1 and lose the series offers +300 odds, significantly better than the -175 odds for simply picking the Panthers to win the series. If you believe Florida will advance, a series spread bet like Panthers -1.5 series spread increases the potential payout to +110, provided they win in six games or fewer.
However, staying consistent with the belief that the Leafs will go all the way this season, the lean is towards the Maple Leafs to win Game 1 and win the series (+230). This Leafs team appears to have strong momentum heading into the second round.
Regarding player bets, Carter Verhaeghe has a history of performing well against the Leafs, dating back to their 2023 playoff series where he scored three goals in five games. In the regular season series, Verhaeghe tallied two goals and four points in four games against Toronto, and also had a high volume of shot attempts. He has appealingly long odds in various player categories, such as most goals in series (+1000), most shots on goal in series (+1000), and scoring a hat trick in any game (+1100), which align with his past performance against Toronto.
If the Maple Leafs win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe? Auston Matthews has the best odds at 18-1. Mitch Marner`s odds improved from 50-1 before Round 1 to 25-1 entering Round 2. William Nylander (60-1) leads the team in goals and points so far. Despite these offensive options, Anthony Stolarz (20-1) has been key to the Leafs reaching Round 2 with timely goaltending.
If the Panthers win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe? Four Panthers players are among the top 20 bets for the Conn Smythe, similar to before Round 1. Instead of Sergei Bobrovsky (16-1), Aleksander Barkov (18-1), or Matthew Tkachuk (18-1), consider Sam Reinhart (25-1). He leads the team in points and forwards in ice time per game by two and a half minutes.
Carolina Hurricanes vs Washington Capitals
Game 1: Capital One Arena, Washington; Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET
- Game 1 puck Line: Hurricanes -1.5 (+190), Capitals +1.5 (-265)
- Series winner: Hurricanes (-175), Capitals (+150)
- Series length: Four games (+600), five games (+260), six games (+195), seven games (+200)
Best bets: Similar to the Panthers-Leafs series, the lower seed is favored by sportsbooks to win the series in this matchup, making the Game 1/series winner combinations interesting. Leaning the same way as the other series, betting on the Capitals to win Game 1 and lose the series (+320) offers a backdoor to improve the odds compared to simply picking the Hurricanes to win.
The Caps and Canes split their four regular-season games, with Carolina holding a slight edge by taking one loss to a shootout. Alex Ovechkin played in three of these games, scoring two goals.
For the Hurricanes, Seth Jarvis and Jackson Blake each scored three goals against the Capitals in the regular season. Dmitry Orlov also showed strong performance against his former team, directing 10 shots on goal and many other attempts towards the net over four games.
Key difference-makers for the Capitals have emerged from the blue line and the top forward line. Jakob Chychrun and John Carlson have significantly positive goal differentials at even strength when playing together. Meanwhile, Anthony Beauvillier, despite scoring only five points in 18 regular-season games after joining Washington, has been a point-per-game player when skating alongside Ovechkin and Dylan Strome (bet: player to score two-plus goals in series at +275).
For the Hurricanes, Andrei Svechnikov (bet: most goals in the series at +1200) moved up the depth chart to the top line by Game 4 of the Devils series. He now shares the lead in goals among players remaining in the postseason with five. In goal, Frederik Andersen is expected back after missing the final game and a half against New Jersey.
If the Hurricanes win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe? Sebastian Aho (14-1) is improving as the playoffs progress, increasing or matching his point total in each subsequent game against the Devils. Adding Svechnikov to his line makes it even more potent, and Aho continues to be clutch with an overtime game-winner in the first series.
If the Capitals win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe? Alex Ovechkin`s odds didn`t change drastically from 25-1 before Round 1 to 20-1 now, likely reflecting the sportsbooks` view on Washington`s Cup chances. Ovi led the Capitals with four goals, including an overtime winner. If the Caps lift the Cup, Ovechkin is the most likely candidate for MVP.
Edmonton Oilers vs Vegas Golden Knights
Game 1: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada; Tuesday, 9:30 p.m. ET
- Game 1 puck line: Golden Knights -1.5 (+175), Oilers +1.5 (-225)
- Series winner: Oilers (-110), Golden Knights (-110)
- Series length: Four games (+700), five games (+270), six games (+195), seven games (+180)
While Calvin Pickard adequately filled in for Stuart Skinner in the first round, Vegas netminder Adin Hill visibly improved as their series against the Minnesota Wild progressed, posting a .918 save percentage in his final three games. Apart from one or two exceptional players (potentially three including Evan Bouchard`s contribution against L.A.), the Knights seem to hold an advantage over Edmonton in most other areas. If Jack Eichel and company can somewhat contain Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl – a significant challenge, no doubt – their stronger team defense, goaltending, and scoring depth should be enough to propel Vegas to victory, likely in six games.
Best bets: Jack Eichel series total goals over 2.5 (+150). Eichel had a quiet start against Minnesota but became the Knights` most effective player, contributing a goal and four assists on 14 shots in the last three games. Expected to play over 20 minutes on Vegas` top line with Mark Stone and William Karlsson, Eichel is well-positioned to increase his goal total against a less formidable defensive group (still missing Mattias Ekholm) and weaker goaltending.
For lower odds but strong value, Eichel series total points over 6.5 (-125) is even more appealing, especially if the series extends to at least six games. Eichel, eighth in NHL scoring during the regular season, averaged 1.22 points per game. He also accumulated nine points against the Oilers when they met in the postseason two years ago.
Looking at shots, consider Evan Bouchard to record 2+ shots on goal in each game (+320). Averaging 3.67 shots per game in the first round, Bouchard failed to reach at least two shots in only one of six games against the Kings. As a standout performer in the opening round and a key reason the Oilers advanced, the defenseman is likely to continue firing pucks frequently. While hitting this mark in every single game is a tall order, the odds make it an attractive bet.
If the Oilers win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe? Connor McDavid (+800). The drop in McDavid`s odds from +1600 at the start of Round 1 speaks volumes. He leads the league with 1.83 points per game and is the current favorite for the award. It`s hard to bet against the player who won the trophy even when his team lost in last year`s Final.
If the Golden Knights win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe? Mark Stone (+3000). For value, stick with the emotional leader of the Golden Knights. Stone, one of the league`s most effective two-way forwards, is expected to play a crucial role against Edmonton`s superstars. If the Knights can overcome the Oilers, then either the Stars or Jets, and finally the Eastern Conference winner, it will likely be due to a superb performance from one of the game`s most complete players.
Dallas Stars vs Winnipeg Jets
Game 1: Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg; Wednesday, 9:30 p.m. ET
- Game 1 puck line: Jets -1.5 (+220), Stars +1.5 (-325)
- Series winner: Stars (-165), Jets (+135)
Picks to come
