2025 Stanley Cup Playoff Bracket Forecast

I must admit that many of my preseason NHL predictions for 2024-25 were inaccurate. There were many incorrect guesses and flawed reasoning, including my bold prediction that the Buffalo Sabres would make the playoffs.

However, I did correctly predict that the two teams I thought would compete in the Stanley Cup Final would indeed be in the 2025 NHL postseason. After analyzing 82 games worth of data and results, I`ve changed my mind about one of those teams, but I`m sticking with the other, even though it might be risky given their current situation.

Here are my predictions for how the Stanley Cup playoffs will unfold, from the first round to the final game. I apologize in advance if this spoils the next two months for you, as obviously everything will happen exactly as I`ve predicted, and none of my picks will be wrong.

Let`s all enjoy the excitement of the postseason together, no matter what happens.

Eastern Conference First Round

I recall speaking with Brady Tkachuk before the 4 Nations Face-Off about the possibility of Ottawa playing Toronto in the playoffs for the first time since 2004. In those meetings, Toronto won all four playoff series known as the Battle of Ontario.

`I think it would be fun and amazing,` he told me. `It doesn`t really matter who you play; it`s about qualifying and the process of getting there.`

I could sense Brady was holding back his excitement to focus on securing a playoff spot for the Senators. However, you could feel his enthusiasm, especially when we talked about how much Ottawa fans would enjoy finally defeating their Original Six rivals.

Anyone who has watched Brady Tkachuk knows he will rise to the occasion. This will be his first time in a Stanley Cup playoff game as more than just a spectator watching his brother play, and his determination will make a difference in this series. However, he can`t do it alone, and the Senators` overall offense isn`t strong enough to truly worry the Leafs. Ottawa ranked 22nd in expected goals per 60 minutes since the 4 Nations break.

To defeat Toronto, a team needs to instill fear and doubt in the Leafs. This was easy for a team like Boston, who seemed to get in their heads just by stepping onto the ice. But the Maple Leafs are inherently aware that the Senators are not at their level. They lack goal scorers like William Nylander (45) or Auston Matthews (33), or point producers like Mitch Marner (102 points) or John Tavares (74 in 75 games). Toronto should be quite confident that their defense, strengthened by the addition of Boston defender Brandon Carlo, will withstand Ottawa`s attack, as long as goalies Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll perform well.

No, there is only one person who can make the Leafs start reliving past playoff failures, and that`s Linus Ullmark.

Ullmark`s playoff record isn`t impressive: a 3-6 record and a .887 save percentage, all with the Bruins. But Leafs fans vividly remember opposing goalies crushing their playoff hopes, most recently Florida`s Sergei Bobrovsky in 2023. The likelihood of Ullmark being that kind of player is low based on his playoff history… but it`s the Leafs in the playoffs. Any disappointment is possible.

Though, perhaps not in this round.

Prediction: Maple Leafs defeat Senators in five games.

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I ranked Stanley Cup playoff series watchability on `The Drop.` The Dallas vs. Colorado series was at the top due to compelling storylines like Mikko Rantanen`s revenge and Gabriel Landeskog`s injury comeback. But the Battle of Florida was right behind it, the most exciting series in the Eastern Conference and potentially the start for a Stanley Cup finalist.

We haven`t seen the full potential of this Panthers team yet, including the havoc a line of Brad Marchand, Sam Bennett, and Matthew Tkachuk can create. (Bolts players, get earplugs.) Florida has been without Aaron Ekblad due to a 20-game suspension for violating the NHL/NHLPA performance-enhancing substances program. He can return as early as Game 3 against Tampa Bay.

The Panthers have shown in consecutive Stanley Cup Finals that their core is built for the postseason. Their key players have the qualities teams seek at the trade deadline: clutch, defensively sound, and consistently perform in big moments. They beat the Lightning in five games last season. However, I think the Panthers` supporting cast is weaker, especially on defense, while the Lightning have improved theirs.

Was there a better low-key offseason move than the Lightning bringing back Ryan McDonagh? His veteran presence at 5-on-5 helped transform their defense from `mediocre` to fourth-best in the NHL this season, according to coach Jon Cooper. Reacquiring center Yanni Gourde, a key player in the Bolts` Stanley Cup wins, was also smart.

Besides those two, there are two other key differences from the last Battle of Florida. One is Jake Guentzel, who scored 41 goals with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. He has 67 points in his last 69 playoff games. The other is Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is playing like a Vezina Trophy winner again. He was below average in the past two postseasons but seems ready to reclaim his title as the best playoff goalie since Martin Brodeur.

`Battle` is an understatement for this series. Two potential Stanley Cup winners. Two intense rivals with talent. A Panthers win wouldn`t surprise me, but I`m picking the Bolts. As Cooper said, many believe their time as contenders is over. This series is the start of their second act.

Prediction: Lightning defeat Panthers in seven games.

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I covered the 2010 Canadiens` upset of the Capitals, a legacy often mentioned since this matchup was set. There are similarities: Capitals at the top, Canadiens as the lowest seed. Montreal added a dynamic rookie late in both seasons: P.K. Subban then, Ivan Demidov now.

Neither Canadiens team was expected to beat the Capitals. Both entered the postseason with a negative goal difference and low expectations. This should worry the Capitals: a team with enthusiasm and no pressure can cause an upset.

But these Capitals are not the 2010 team. Those Capitals were fragile, feeling pressure in their arena during adversity. Questions about their team led to a crisis when Montreal upset them in Game 7. It took years for Washington to regain confidence.

These Capitals are led by coach Spencer Carbery, a smart and steady presence, and Alex Ovechkin, who can still inspire his team with a goal from his spot.

There`s disrespect towards the Capitals due to lack of depth and questions about their true quality. But if they get good goaltending, especially from a healthy Logan Thompson, Washington is a better team than Montreal and will win. Congrats to the Canadiens for gaining valuable experience and avoiding a collapse like other wild-card contenders.

Prediction: Capitals defeat Canadiens in five games.

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The Hurricanes are vulnerable.

Their 5-on-5 goaltending since the 4 Nations Face-Off is 23rd in the NHL, and their expected goals against per 60 minutes is 14th. They still have Rod Brind`Amour`s team traits: puck possession, grinding style, and a top penalty kill.

They create chances, leading the league in expected goals since 4 Nations. But they are only ninth in actual 5-on-5 goals per 60 minutes, showing they struggle to finish. This is why Carolina traded for Jake Guentzel last season and had Mikko Rantanen briefly this season.

Brind`Amour`s teams often lack that key goal in crucial moments, limiting their ceiling to the conference finals. Management has tried to solve this twice, but the Hurricanes enter the postseason without that veteran scorer.

Carolina`s vulnerability doesn`t guarantee a Devils` win. A playoff team should win four of seven games, but New Jersey hasn`t consistently done that since December. Even before Jack Hughes` season-ending injury, they didn`t have a win streak longer than three games. After Hughes` injury on March 2, they had two three-game winning streaks and three three-game losing streaks. Inconsistency is their only constant.

Can they upset? Maybe. Dougie Hamilton is healthy. Nico Hischier, Timo Meier, and Jesper Bratt have stepped up without Hughes, keeping their power play strong. If Jacob Markstrom is above average for four games, they can win. But he`s often inconsistent.

This matchup is closer than people think, but the Devils will likely wonder what could have been with a healthy Jack Hughes.

Prediction: Hurricanes defeat Devils in six games.

Eastern Conference Second Round

To beat the Maple Leafs in the playoffs, you must create enough doubt and frustration for them to defeat themselves.

The Lightning are 1-1 in recent series against the Leafs. Andrei Vasilevskiy`s save percentage was below .900 in both. He will be the difference, leading Tampa Bay back to the conference finals for the first time since 2022, while Leafs fans worry about Mitch Marner`s upcoming free agency.

Prediction: Lightning defeat Leafs in six games.

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The Hurricanes will falter in the conference semifinals, unable to find enough offense as the Capitals advance due to better goaltending and a strong supporting cast. Home-ice advantage will be key in a close series, with Washington reaching the final four.

Prediction: Capitals defeat Hurricanes in seven games.

Eastern Conference Finals

Can a coaching matchup be the main attraction? Spencer Carbery vs. Jon Cooper is a great pairing of hockey minds.

Ultimately, the Capitals can`t stop the Lightning`s top lines and fall short of sending Alex Ovechkin to the Stanley Cup Final. Hopefully, he can find comfort in becoming the greatest goal scorer in hockey history earlier this season.

Prediction: Lightning defeat Capitals in six games.

Western Conference First Round

The Presidents` Trophy Curse is real. Since 1985-86, only eight top regular-season teams have won the Stanley Cup. Seven lost in the first round. Since 2013-14, no Presidents` Trophy winner has reached the Stanley Cup Final.

Winnipeg understands this. Despite a strong start, they know regular-season success means nothing without playoff success. Past playoff exits against Vegas in 2023 and Colorado in 2024 after five games taught them this.

`We`re not getting carried away because we know what happened last year,` said coach Scott Arniel. `The Stanley Cup isn`t awarded in November.`

Due to the Curse and Winnipeg`s playoff history, some might pick the Blues in an upset, especially after St. Louis`s strong run after the 4 Nations Face-Off. They were excellent offensively and defensively at 5-on-5 during that streak. Teams catching fire late can win in the first round.

But I don`t see it happening here.

The Jets have two advantages. First, their league-leading power play (28.9%) against the Blues` 28th-ranked penalty kill (74.2%). While Winnipeg will miss Nikolaj Ehlers, their special teams edge is significant.

Second, Connor Hellebuyck, likely to win his second straight Vezina Trophy, is a major advantage. Jordan Binnington is good, but not Hellebuyck.

Hellebuyck led the NHL in key goalie stats. His past playoff exits were poor, but he looks ready to prove his `best in the world` status.

Betalytics gives the Jets a 59% chance to win. If Hellebuyck plays poorly, it drops to 50.8% for St. Louis. He`s crucial to this series.

Respect to the Blues for their playoff push. But in their last 25 games, their 5-on-5 shooting percentage was unusually high. I expect that to decline. Give me the goalie, the power play, and Winnipeg`s desire to avoid another playoff disappointment.

Prediction: Jets defeat Blues in five games.

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I picked the Stars to win the Stanley Cup before the season and I`m sticking with it, though I`m not confident right now.

The Stars are missing top defenseman Miro Heiskanen against a team with Nathan MacKinnon. Heiskanen might miss the entire first round with a knee injury, but there`s hope for a return against the Avalanche. They are also missing Jason Robertson due to a knee injury.

Dallas is also entering the playoffs on a seven-game winless streak.

Despite these issues, I`m sticking with the Stars, hoping they get healthy and Jake Oettinger plays exceptionally well. This series could be the Mikko Rantanen Revenge Series.

The Avalanche traded Rantanen because they didn`t want to pay his contract demands, believing they could find a cheaper player to play with MacKinnon. They acquired Martin Necas, who has performed well at a lower cost.

Rantanen was traded to Dallas and signed a large contract. Now, he faces his former team in the playoffs, adding a major storyline.

Adding to the drama, Colorado captain Gabriel Landeskog is returning after a long injury absence. His return will provide a huge emotional boost for the Avalanche.

Colorado has significantly changed their team this season. They traded Alexandar Georgiev for Mackenzie Blackwood, added Necas, Brock Nelson, Ryan Lindgren, and Charlie Coyle. They have a strong core with MacKinnon and Cale Makar.

The winner of this series could win the Stanley Cup. And since I picked Dallas to win the Cup…

I`m still picking Dallas, but I`m not confident. Maybe ignore this pick.

Prediction: Stars defeat Avalanche in seven games.

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When asked about Minnesota`s chances of upsetting Vegas, a source familiar with the Wild simply said `LOL`.

Part of me thought Minnesota might have a chance. They are finally healthy with the return of Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek. The team has good morale after clinching a playoff spot. We might even see Marc-Andre Fleury against the Golden Knights.

The Wild were 29-17-4 before Kaprizov was injured. They briefly challenged Winnipeg for the conference lead. Could they challenge Vegas?

The Golden Knights are very good, ranking sixth in expected goals percentage at 5-on-5. They are fifth in offense and third in defense, despite injuries to key players. But in typical Golden Knights fashion, key players like Jack Eichel and Alex Pietrangelo will be ready for Game 1. They have strong offensive players and a deep defense in front of goalie Adin Hill, who has improved after a slow start.

In short, congrats to the Wild for making the playoffs.

Prediction: Vegas defeats Minnesota in five games.

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Beating the same team repeatedly is difficult. Eventually, luck changes, and the losing team finds a way to win.

The Buffalo Bills might have thought this before facing the Kansas City Chiefs for the fourth time in five seasons, only to lose again. Despite reasons, the Chiefs, with Patrick Mahomes, remained undefeated in those playoff games.

The Kings have lost to the Oilers in three straight first-round series and now face them for a fourth. Edmonton is slightly favored, but some believe the Kings are well-positioned to win due to home ice and a strong defense, second in goals-against average (2.48). Goalie Darcy Kuemper might be the best goalie Edmonton has faced in these matchups.

However, like the Bills lacking Patrick Mahomes, the Kings lack Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

McDavid`s point production is slightly down this season due to injury, and Draisaitl enters the playoffs with a lower-body injury.

But in 18 playoff games against Los Angeles, McDavid averages two points per game, and Draisaitl has 17 goals. This isn`t just good play; it`s dominance.

Beating a team four times in a row is tough. The Kings are solid with good defense, scorers, and veterans. The Oilers are weaker than last year, with injuries and questionable goaltending.

But they have Connor and Leon, which should be enough for a fourth straight first-round win.

Prediction: Oilers defeat Kings in six games.

Western Conference Second Round

I think there`s a possibility where the Jets and Maple Leafs play in the Stanley Cup Final. The Jets` potential is to win the Cup.

But if the Stars get past the Avalanche, they will improve with a healthier team and reach the conference finals for the third straight year.

Prediction: Stars defeat Jets in six games.

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The only playoff series between these teams was in 2023, which Vegas won en route to the Stanley Cup.

Unless the Oilers improve after the Kings series, they are too inconsistent defensively and lack Vegas`s depth. Vegas wins, ending Edmonton`s Cup hopes.

Prediction: Golden Knights defeat Oilers in six games.

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Western Conference Finals

This is the fourth playoff meeting between these teams. Dallas won in the 2020 conference finals and 2024 first round, while Vegas won the 2023 conference finals before winning the Cup.

This series will be tough between two deep and talented teams. Can Dallas`s defense handle Vegas`s physicality? Dallas needs Thomas Harley`s speed and hopes Oettinger is the better goalie.

Prediction: Stars defeat Golden Knights in six games.

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Stanley Cup Final

The Stars will be healthy and use their veteran and young players to win the championship, completing their three-season journey.

After a strong season, the Lightning will be Stanley Cup Final runner-ups again.

It will be a great series with stars on both teams. Oettinger will win the Conn Smythe Trophy. Dallas will win the Cup for the first time since 1999, reversing the 2020 Stanley Cup Final result against the Lightning.

Prediction: Stars win in seven games over the Lightning.