With the 2025 NBA Finals two games in, the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder find themselves tied 1-1. So far, the series narrative hasn`t strayed significantly from pre-series expectations.
For instance, it was anticipated that for the Pacers to secure a win on the Thunder`s home court, they would likely need to channel the exceptional performance level that defined their journey through the previous playoff rounds. Game 1 saw Indiana deliver just that, giving Oklahoma City a taste of the same intensity that defeated the Milwaukee Bucks, Cleveland Cavaliers, and New York Knicks earlier in the postseason. However, consistent with their pattern after a playoff loss, Oklahoma City demonstrated their superior talent in Game 2, building an early lead they never relinquished.
While the overall flow of the series might feel familiar, the statistical data reveals some surprising deviations from the teams` usual performances. From Pacers turnovers to Thunder free throws, the initial games have produced numbers that are significant outliers compared to how these teams typically play. Analyzing these statistics is crucial, as comparing current performance to a team`s season-long baseline is an effective way to understand what is working well or where they are struggling.
With this analytical approach, let`s examine the five most significant statistical outliers observed in the series to date, highlighting how each team is performing relative to its own established norms.
Indiana 2-pointers
Throughout the season, the Pacers have been efficient inside the arc, averaging 30.0 made 2-pointers per game with a 56.6% shooting percentage, ranking among the top five in the NBA in both categories during the regular season. Pascal Siakam, in particular, was a key contributor, ranking 18th in the league with 6.2 made 2-pointers per game. Indiana`s offense was less reliant on 3-pointers compared to many other teams in the 2024-25 season.
In these Finals, however, Indiana`s approach to 2-pointers has changed dramatically. They are averaging only 22.0 made 2-pointers per game, with Siakam`s average dropping to 4.0, and their shooting percentage inside the arc is down to 51.8%. Both figures represent some of their lowest production levels of the season.
Conversely, the Pacers are attempting significantly more 3-pointers, averaging 39.5 tries per game, with over 48% of their shots coming from beyond the arc. This contrasts with their season averages of 35.5 attempts and 40% of shots from deep. While trailing in games can partly explain an increase in 3-point attempts, it`s clear the Pacers` usual shot distribution has been disrupted in this series.
Indiana Turnovers/Opponent Steals
Related to their reduced number of made field goals, the Pacers have also been plagued by excessive turnovers. According to Basketball-Reference, nearly 18% of Indiana`s possessions have ended in a turnover during the Finals, a significant increase from their season-long rate of 11.9%. Their 25 turnovers in Game 1 were the most by a winning team in the Finals since 1977.
Specifically, Oklahoma City`s steal numbers against Indiana have been among the biggest statistical outliers. Their 14 steals in Game 1 matched the second-highest total the Pacers allowed all season and were easily their most in the playoffs. OKC`s average of 12.0 steals per game through Games 1 and 2 is considerably higher than the 7.3 steals per game Indiana typically allowed.
While the Thunder are recognized as one of the league`s premier defenses at forcing turnovers, the Pacers were among the best offenses at protecting the ball. Something had to give, and currently, that advantage lies with Oklahoma City.
Oklahoma City Free Throws
Although certain Thunder players are known for their ability to draw fouls, Oklahoma City`s offense as a whole was not exceptionally reliant on free throws during the regular season. They ranked 24th in made free throws per field goal attempt and averaged a modest 16.7 free throws per game, placing them 19th league-wide.
However, in the Finals, Oklahoma City has frequently been at the free-throw line, averaging 25.0 attempts per game. Their ratio of free throws attempted per field goal attempt is 51% higher than their season average.
The Thunder`s 29 made free throws in Game 2 were their third-highest total in any game this season and tied for the fourth-most Indiana has allowed in a game. While the Pacers are fouling more than usual, the Thunder have capitalized by shooting an impressive 87.7% from the line in the series. Two of their five most accurate free-throw shooting performances of the entire playoffs have come in these Finals. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander alone accounts for 36% of the Thunder`s total made free throws, managing to improve on his league-leading rate of made free throws per game from the regular season.
Indiana Scoring
Despite achieving better offensive balance this season, the Pacers remain primarily an offensive-oriented team. They ranked 9th in offensive efficiency during the regular season (compared to 13th defensively) and were 2nd offensively in the playoffs. Their season-long scoring average is 117.2 points per game, but in the Finals so far, this has dropped to 109.0.
This is the only time in the playoffs where the Pacers have been held to 111 points or fewer in both of the opening two games of a series.
This scoring dip isn`t due to a slower game pace; the 99.8 possessions per Finals game is slightly higher than Indiana`s season average of 99.6. Instead, it can be attributed to factors mentioned earlier: taking more 3-pointers instead of 2-pointers and, significantly, committing so many turnovers.
The net effect is fewer points scored, particularly for key players. Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton, who averaged a combined 39.9 points per game in the playoffs before the Finals, are currently averaging just 32.5 points together in this series.
Both Teams` Assists
One early trend affecting both offenses is a reduction in their assist numbers compared to their typical averages.
Based on their season-long statistics, Indiana and Oklahoma City would normally combine for an average of 55.5 assists per game (29.0 from the Pacers and 26.5 from the Thunder). However, through the first two Finals games, their combined average has fallen to 44.5 assists per game, with Indiana dropping to 25.5 and Oklahoma City to 19.0.
These are notable declines, though they result from different underlying reasons.
For Indiana, their assist rate (assists per made basket) has actually slightly increased in the Finals (from 66.9% to 67.3%). The drop in total assists is simply because they are making significantly fewer baskets than usual (38.0 field goals per game versus their typical 43.3 average).
Oklahoma City, on the other hand, is genuinely sharing the ball less effectively. Their assist rate in Games 1 and 2 is 47.9% (including a season-low 33.3% in Game 1), compared to their season-long average of 59.7%. While Shai Gilgeous-Alexander increased his assists from three in Game 1 to eight in Game 2, the Pacers will likely continue focusing on limiting the Thunder`s overall ball movement going forward.
