Following a competitive series that saw both teams trade wins, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers are nearing the conclusion of the 2025 NBA Finals. With the series tied 2-2 heading into Monday`s Game 5, the Thunder took a decisive 3-2 lead with a dominant home performance, fueled by MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander`s 31 points and Jalen Williams` 40. Just one victory separates the Thunder from the championship.
A major concern for the Pacers is the health of their star guard, Tyrese Haliburton, who is reportedly dealing with a strained right calf and is scheduled for an MRI. Haliburton`s performance in Game 5 was notably limited, resulting in a playoff career-low of four points, along with six assists and seven rebounds.
Ahead of Thursday`s crucial Game 6 in Indianapolis, our NBA insiders weigh in on the biggest questions, including Indiana`s path to forcing a Game 7 and the potential X factors.
On a scale of 1 to 10, how concerned should the Pacers be about Tyrese Haliburton`s Game 5 performance and his status?
Tim MacMahon: 10. It`s difficult to imagine the Pacers generating sufficient points against the league`s top defense without a healthy Haliburton. His impact isn`t solely about scoring, but Indiana performs differently when he is aggressive. In these playoffs, Indiana holds a 12-3 record when Haliburton scores at least 20 points, compared to 8-11 when he doesn`t. While T.J. McConnell provides valuable energy off the bench and can deliver scoring bursts, he`s not equipped to carry the primary ball-handling and scoring load for extended periods, like a third-down running back isn`t built for 25 carries.
Jamal Collier: 10. Haliburton`s scoring total in a game doesn`t tell the full story; he is the crucial engine driving this team. He appeared limited on Monday, unable to effectively drive past defenders, and spent much of his time positioned in the corners while others initiated the offense. If he cannot significantly improve his effectiveness from Game 5, Indiana`s chances of winning become extremely difficult.
Chris Herring: A solid 8, and perhaps even that is too low. My concern isn`t just his Game 5 performance itself, but the level of injury required for him to play so poorly in such a critical moment. Yes, Haliburton occasionally has subpar games, so Game 5 might have simply been one of those instances. However, the Pacers were generally poor on Monday – marked by poor outings from Haliburton and Andrew Nembhard, excessive minutes for Tony Bradley, and numerous turnovers – yet they still had a chance to win in the final minutes. Therefore, if Haliburton`s mobility is hindered in Game 6 due to his calf injury, it`s hugely worrying. Even if McConnell delivers more clutch performances, it`s hard to envision Indiana securing two more wins without Haliburton being physically right.
Tim Bontemps: 10. This is quite straightforward: Indiana`s season will end with another loss, and their key player appears likely to be significantly less than 100 percent. The situation couldn`t be more concerning.
Zach Kram: 10. His poor Game 5 wasn`t just a result of a shooting slump or Luguentz Dort`s tight defense, which would be manageable issues. It was a poor game because of a calf injury, which doesn`t typically heal quickly and clearly impacted Haliburton`s movement throughout Monday`s contest.
The Pacers will extend the series if _____.
Herring: If Haliburton isn`t his usual self, it`s fair to question whether Rick Carlisle should consider giving McConnell extended minutes as the lead guard – certainly more than the 22 minutes he played on Monday – and running the offense through Pascal Siakam more frequently. Keeping a struggling Haliburton in the game just because he wants to play (he stated he`ll play if he can walk, given it`s the Finals) becomes questionable if he continues to struggle like he did in Game 5. Even if Haliburton isn`t fully healthy, the Pacers significantly improve their chances simply by taking better care of the ball. Oklahoma City transformed an eight-point advantage in the fourth quarter into a 16-point lead rapidly because Indiana committed four consecutive turnovers during a critical stretch.
Bontemps: They control a combination of these statistics: bench scoring, points off turnovers, and 3-point shooting. These three factors are largely interconnected. If Indiana protects the ball, makes 3-pointers, and outscores Oklahoma City`s bench (Game 5 was the first time a team lost despite outscoring the opponent`s bench in this series), it indicates Indiana is dictating the game`s flow. The Thunder excel at forcing turnovers, pushing in transition, and converting open layups and 3s. Limiting these aspects will greatly assist Indiana in securing a victory.
Collier: They control the pace in Game 6. Minimizing turnovers and better health from Haliburton are prerequisite to having any chance, but the Pacers also need the game played at their speed. This means a much faster tempo, running in transition after made baskets, limiting the Thunder`s free throws, and forcing them into a half-court game, which can revert OKC`s offense to the isolation-heavy attack seen in Games 3 and 4. Achieving all these factors simultaneously is a challenging task.
Kram: They score at least 110 points. Indiana boasts a 14-0 record in the postseason when they reach this scoring mark, and 0-7 when they don`t. While simplistic, Indiana has relied on its explosive offense for victories throughout the season, so it`s unsurprising that they win when they score effectively and lose when they can`t.
MacMahon: They likely require a monstrous performance from the proven champion on their roster. Siakam notably propelled Indiana to a seemingly improbable win in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals by scoring 39 points against the New York Knicks. Can he deliver a performance of that caliber with the Pacers` season on the line? Siakam has been solid in this series, averaging 20.6 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 4.2 assists. He needs to elevate his game another notch or two for the Pacers to force a Game 7.
The Thunder win the Finals if ____.
Bontemps: They make 3-pointers. It`s remarkable that OKC has achieved wins in these playoffs despite struggling with their shooting at times. However, if the Thunder can have a hot shooting night on the road in Game 6, it`s hard to foresee them needing to play a Game 7, considering their other advantages and Haliburton`s uncertain condition.
Collier: They have truly found a way to solve Indiana`s defense. While their two stars receive most of the attention, the Thunder`s offense exhibited much better flow overall in Game 5. Given that Oklahoma City`s defense has been consistently strong, if this offensive rhythm is sustainable, the Thunder are well-positioned to win on the road.
MacMahon: They impose their will. As Chet Holmgren stated, `Luck always tends to favor the aggressors.` The Pacers play fast but are not a finesse team; Indiana has put the Thunder on their heels at times with their physicality. Oklahoma City reversed this in the fourth quarter of Game 4, sparking their comeback, and intensified it in Game 5, forcing 23 turnovers that resulted in 32 points. OKC has an opportunity to finalize one of the most impressive defensive seasons in recent memory.
Herring: They get another 30-plus-point outing from Williams. They will also need another energized performance from Cason Wallace, who responded very effectively with 11 points and four steals in just 17 minutes after a difficult Game 4 (and being moved to the bench after Game 3). Crucially, the Thunder must again win the turnover battle by a significant margin, similar to Game 4 where they outscored Indiana 32-9 in points off turnovers.
Kram: At least one bench player steps up while on the road. Williams and Gilgeous-Alexander were outstanding in the last two victories, but the Thunder also benefited from essential contributions from Alex Caruso, who scored 20 points in Game 4, and Wallace and Aaron Wiggins, who collectively contributed 25 points and seven 3-pointers in Game 5.
An X factor in Game 6 will be ____.
Kram: Nembhard`s offense. The tenacious defender has seen his offensive production quietly decline as the playoffs have progressed. Up through Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals, he averaged 14.4 points and 5.5 assists per game while making 53% of his 3-pointers. Since then, his numbers have dropped to 9.1 points, 3.4 assists, and 31% 3-point shooting; and in Game 5 of these Finals, Nembhard committed several crucial turnovers that derailed Indiana`s comeback attempt. Especially with Haliburton`s health uncertain, the Pacers` other starting guard will need to deliver a strong performance on both ends of the court.
Collier: Indiana`s role players have generally appeared more comfortable playing at home throughout the series, and their contributions will be important in Game 6. But frankly, if Haliburton cannot perform close to his usual level driving the offense, I doubt there`s any single X factor that can compensate for the difference it makes for Indiana.
Herring: The speed at which Indiana initiates its offense. The Thunder`s defense was smothering in the paint during Game 5, and between Haliburton`s limited movement and McConnell not being a significant floor spacer – even with McConnell having an impressive third quarter scoring – Indiana looked sluggish for extended periods, which is completely contrary to how their offense functions best. Being at home should help, but if the Pacers cannot generate transition opportunities to alleviate pressure on Haliburton, the night likely ends with OKC celebrating with the trophy.
MacMahon: Will Oklahoma City get production from their bench? The Thunder`s deep bench has been a significant factor in each of their wins in this series. Caruso has delivered a couple of 20-point games after having none during the regular season. Wiggins scored 18 points in Game 2 and 14 in Game 5, hitting a combined nine 3-pointers in those two contests (and none in the other three Finals games). Wallace made 3-of-4 shots from 3-point range in Game 5 after missing all eight attempts in his first four Finals appearances. If Oklahoma City receives some scoring punch from their reserves, you can start planning the parade in Bricktown.
Bontemps: Can Myles Turner get back on track? After some outstanding performances earlier in these playoffs, his numbers have declined in this series, including shooting just 5-for-22 from beyond the arc. Especially with Haliburton`s role in question, Indiana could desperately use Turner contributing 20-plus points and posing the deep threat he was earlier in the postseason.
True or false: This series will go to Game 7
Herring: False. I would love to see it happen, and the series has been largely fantastic, providing ample reason to believe it could. However, I feel there are simply too many questions surrounding Haliburton`s physical readiness to confidently predict the Pacers will defeat the Thunder`s formidable defense again in Game 6. I hope I`m wrong so we can witness a winner-take-all showdown for the title – nothing would be more exciting.
Bontemps: False. Given Haliburton`s injury status and the Thunder consistently demonstrating their strengths throughout this highly entertaining series, I anticipate we will see the Thunder secure their first championship on Thursday night. Perhaps I haven`t fully learned from how the Pacers have performed throughout these playoffs, but this combination of factors seems too significant for them to overcome.
Collier: False. With Haliburton`s health uncertain and the Thunder gaining momentum, it doesn`t feel likely. However, it certainly wouldn`t be surprising if Indiana manages one more surprising feat after consistently being underestimated.
MacMahon: In accordance with my personal policy, I do not make predictions on series that I am covering. Nevertheless, I do have a flight scheduled to return home on Friday morning.
Kram: True, if Haliburton is reasonably healthy after two days off; false, if he is as limited as he appeared in Game 5. While this answer might be considered evasive, it`s genuinely impossible to reliably predict the outcome for the Pacers in this postseason.
