2025 NBA draft: Value picks, risky moves, ROY predictions

My favorite pick was Kasparas Jakucionis going to the Miami Heat at number 20. The Heat not only landed a player I rated significantly higher (number 10), but they also addressed a roster need with a prospect who aligns perfectly with their team culture and playing style. Jakucionis (6-foot-6, 205 pounds) possesses the ball-handling and playmaking needed for shot creation in the backcourt, yet is large enough to play alongside All-Star guard Tyler Herro. His size, strength, and perimeter shooting versatility make him a flexible option ideal for the modern NBA, potentially allowing him to play alongside Davion Mitchell and Herro.

The Heat also signed Russian center Vlad Goldin, ranked as the number 2 undrafted free agent prospect on ESPN`s board (number 49), adding to their recent international acquisitions, including players from Lithuania, Russia, Sweden, and Serbia.

I liked Khaman Maluach going to the Phoenix Suns at number 10. While predicting the Suns` immediate future is tough, they effectively addressed weaknesses from last season, particularly by adding Maluach. He represents the much-needed large, paint-protecting presence the team lacked. The Suns struggled defensively last season, and Maluach, alongside new teammate Mark Williams, should significantly improve that area. He`s well-suited to complement Phoenix`s offense, which centers around ball-dominant perimeter players.

Ace Bailey landing with the Utah Jazz at number 5 was the ideal situation. Despite pre-draft speculation regarding his preferred landing spot and agent-related drama, the situation was resolved smoothly, partly due to NBA rules limiting player leverage and the negative public reaction. When Bailey arrives in Utah, he should recognize the excellent opportunity he has: a chance for significant playing time, a team needing star power, strong coaching, and a passionate fan base. It`s a perfect environment for him to develop his All-Star potential.

Egor Demin going to the Brooklyn Nets at number 8 seems ideal. I`m more optimistic about Demin`s prospects than some; there`s always demand for players with his profile as a large playmaker. I understand why the Nets saw him as a worthwhile selection at that spot. Going to a team where he`ll get early playing time, extensive on-ball chances, pair with other skilled passers in Brooklyn`s draft class, and develop his shooting is an excellent scenario. His rookie year might be challenging, but his unselfish approach fits the Nets` desired team identity. Landing in a fresh environment like this could greatly benefit Demin, unlike potentially fighting for limited minutes on a more established roster.

Liam McNeeley at number 29 to the Charlotte Hornets stands out as the best value pick. I was surprised McNeeley (ranked 17th on our board) fell to the end of the first round. Known primarily for his shooting, he only shot 32% from three at UConn last season and reportedly struggled in some private workouts. However, I`ve seen McNeeley shoot exceptionally well in various settings and believe he`ll excel with NBA spacing in a smaller offensive role than he had at UConn. He offers more than just shooting, including size (6-foot-8), toughness, feel for the game, and overall skill. Finding a player with this combination of attributes is difficult, making this a potential steal for the Hornets.

Jakucionis to the Heat was great value. Miami benefited from the unexpected decisions made by teams drafting ahead of them, landing a player some, including myself, considered a top-10 prospect. He also fits the Heat`s need for a playmaking guard. He was more divisive among teams than anticipated, but I expect this pick to look better for Miami over time than it will for the teams that passed on him.

Egor Demin to the Nets was the most surprising pick for me. Many questioned why we kept Demin in our top 10 despite his difficulties in the Big 12. Still, I was slightly surprised he was selected ahead of Khaman Maluach and Jakucionis, whom I ranked higher. We heard the Nets aimed to draft a starting point guard, and they now have several candidates in Demin, Nolan Traore, Ben Saraf, and possibly Danny Wolf. I appreciate that Demin will be given a significant role to reach his potential, allowed to learn from mistakes, and have playmakers around him. Ideally, the group would have more shooting, but that`s something the Nets can address later, possibly in next year`s potentially strong draft class with players like A.J. Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer, or Nate Ament.

Yang Hansen to the Portland Trail Blazers at number 16 was surprising, though more fascinating than shocking. Yang possesses an intriguing skillset for a young big man, making him a worthwhile gamble for someone. I liked his performance at the combine, but there was no expectation he`d be picked in the top 20. It`s a significant gamble on his offensive game translating from a lower level of competition in China. The Nets were the only team widely linked to Yang, holding picks after the Trail Blazers. I understand Portland`s logic of taking the player they love rather than risking trading back. Even with that reasoning, I never envisioned Yang being selected so high.

The Charlotte Hornets had my favorite class. Beyond McNeeley`s value, I also really like the additions of Kon Knueppel (number 4) and Ryan Kalkbrenner (number 34). Knueppel`s feel for the game, selfless approach, strength, and toughness should make him an excellent fit alongside LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller, complementing their games well. I was a big fan of Knueppel throughout the season and wasn`t surprised by his top-five selection.

With Kalkbrenner, the Hornets gained a big man who is ready to contribute rotation minutes immediately on a cost-effective rookie contract. Charlotte needed an NBA-ready player after trading Mark Williams for the pick used on McNeeley and a 2029 first-rounder, a move I also thought was very smart.

The San Antonio Spurs had my favorite class. Landing Harper was fortunate, and they were right to resist trading him to accelerate their timeline. While his fit with De`Aaron Fox might raise questions, the idea of allowing Harper to develop alongside Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle makes significant sense. We often rush to assign immediate championship aspirations to teams with superstar talent, but it`s crucial to remember Wembanyama is only 21. San Antonio correctly focused on selecting talent and letting these players grow together. Adding Carter Bryant at number 14, who can complement his ball-dominant teammates with shooting and defense, gives the Spurs the potential for a truly outstanding young core.

No single team`s class stands out as my least favorite. However, I would have liked to see the Houston Rockets and Denver Nuggets participate more actively in either round. Their focus on current playoff contention makes their inactivity understandable.

The New Orleans Pelicans` class was my least favorite, less due to the players` talent and more the risk and fit concerns introduced by their recent moves. Jeremiah Fears is talented, but whether he can maximize it in a potentially crowded backcourt, especially with Jordan Poole now present, is questionable. I also struggle to see how Queen can effectively share the court with Zion Williamson in a winning lineup. Neither player shoots well from the perimeter or offers high-level paint protection, potentially hindering each other. I`m concerned about the opportunity for either lottery pick to effectively utilize their skills in this situation.

Naturally, a new front office will target players they favor, establishing their identity and addressing other issues later. This approach would be more palatable if the Pelicans hadn`t traded their unprotected 2026 first-round pick to facilitate these moves. This decision puts considerable pressure on the current roster to make a significant leap forward.

My favorite in-draft trade was the Atlanta Hawks trading down to ultimately draft Asa Newell at number 23. The new Hawks front office effectively acquired what I project as the number 8 pick in the 2026 NBA draft simply by moving down 10 spots in this draft. While I rated Queen 23 spots ahead of Newell on my board, making the value debatable for New Orleans, Atlanta`s move was excellent. New Orleans clearly signaled their strong interest in Queen before the draft, harming their negotiation position. This led them to give up a potentially valuable 2026 first-round pick for less return than they should have received.

I liked the Jazz trading up to select Walter Clayton Jr. at number 18. I wasn`t initially a major supporter of Clayton during the season, but upon further evaluation, I began to see his potential as a shotmaking talent, which is valuable in a draft somewhat lacking in true point guards. The Jazz didn`t have to pay a high price to move up, and while he might need to compete for minutes, there`s a reasonable chance Clayton develops into a useful contributor.

My least favorite was Memphis trading up five spots with Portland, from number 16 to number 11. They gave up an unprotected first-round pick from Orlando in 2028 and two second-round picks (2027 via Atlanta, 2028 from Orlando). That seems like a significant cost to move up just five spots, even with rumors that the Oklahoma City Thunder (picking 15th) were also trying to trade up for Cedric Coward. I wasn`t convinced Coward was worth picking that high, so we`ll see how this plays out. I would have preferred Portland to trade down further, perhaps 5-10 spots, for Yang and acquire more assets, but the trade market appeared to soften considerably outside the top 15, with minimal movement in the latter half of the first round.

New Orleans mortgaging their future for Queen was my least favorite trade. Given all factors, regardless of how highly you rate the Maryland center, trading a 2026 first-round pick to move up 10 spots in this draft is difficult to justify. It`s less about the player specifically and more about the transactional process.

In five years, we`ll likely wonder why Hugo Gonzalez fell to the Boston Celtics at number 28. I rated him 15th on my board, 13 spots higher than where he was drafted. He was projected as a top-10 pick early on, but his stock dropped, partly because he struggled to get playing time on a stacked Real Madrid team. Had Gonzalez played elsewhere – in a different league, college, or the NBL Next Stars program – he would have been a clear lottery pick in my opinion. He built an impressive resume in FIBA youth and junior club competitions before this season.

His fit in Boston is also excellent. He`s sure to become a fan favorite due to the intense defensive energy he provides. I heard Boston planned to sign their rookie pick to a lower salary scale, but given Gonzalez`s significant buyout with Real Madrid ($1.4 million), that won`t be feasible, as he`ll need to cover a substantial portion himself.

We might wonder why Will Riley fell to the Washington Wizards at number 21. Having watched him play many times at Illinois last season, I strongly believe in Riley`s talent. There`s a real chance he thrives on a Wizards team that will offer significant opportunities to young players. He will need to focus on his physical development – Riley is 6-foot-8 but only 180 pounds – but historically, few talented wings with legitimate size have failed solely because they were too thin.

Riley possesses actual basketball skill, and I anticipate he will surprise many people over time.

I predict Cooper Flagg will win NBA Rookie of the Year. He is the most talented player in this class and is expected to play a major role for the Mavericks immediately. With limited shot creation currently on their roster, they will need him to be a star from day one, essentially helping them stay competitive in a tough Western Conference while they await Kyrie Irving`s return from injury.

Anyone other than Flagg? Probably not. This isn`t a daring prediction. He`s entering a prime situation to make an immediate impact, and I anticipate he will adapt to the NBA quickly and effectively.

My prediction for the NBA All-Rookie first team includes: Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper, Ace Bailey, Kon Knueppel, and Tre Johnson (Wizards).

My picks are Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper, Tre Johnson, Kon Knueppel. To offer a slightly different list, I`ll add the other Jazz rookie, Walter Clayton Jr.

Javon Small, taken 48th by Memphis, is most likely to shine in the G League. As a first-team All-Conference player in the strong Big 12, Small led an underdog West Virginia team with steady shot creation and making, plus significant toughness on both ends – qualities that transfer well to the G League. He`ll be a tough cover in transition and should thrive in the league`s up-tempo style, scoring efficiently while making winning plays. I wouldn`t be surprised if he becomes another valuable find for Memphis, similar to Scotty Pippen Jr., in the coming years.

Ryan Nembhard, who went undrafted, is someone I expect to light up the G League. Nembhard will sign a two-way deal with the Mavericks. However, there`s a chance he earns an NBA roster spot quickly due to the Mavs` limited point guard depth. I admire Nembhard`s feel for facilitating and involving teammates and believe he can overcome his size limitations (6-foot, 180 pounds). Whenever he is assigned to the G League, he will be among the top guards there.

I`m most interested in following Eric Dixon with the Los Angeles Lakers. The former Villanova guard was the top scorer in college basketball, averaging 23 points and shooting 41% from three. He`s not just a spot-up shooter; he can hit tough pull-ups and effectively draw fouls. At 6-foot-8 with a strong 260-pound build, he presents a genuine inside-out mismatch threat. Dixon, 24, will need to prove his defensive capability, but he brings toughness and physicality along with his floor-spacing ability. I see him as a good addition for the Lakers.

I heard Lakers president Rob Pelinka spent time with Dixon after his workout and shared a story about Kobe Bryant visiting the Sistine Chapel. Pelinka described how Bryant noticed the lack of lighting and how Michelangelo worked by candlelight, illustrating the attention to detail and focus required for mastery under challenging conditions. Bryant related this to his own dedication on the basketball court, considering Michelangelo`s mindset in perfecting his craft and creating a masterpiece despite difficult circumstances. It seems the Lakers see a similar dedication in Dixon.

John Poulakidas with the LA Clippers is another undrafted player I`m keen to follow. The former Yale guard was a deep sleeper I came to appreciate during the season. Poulakidas (6-foot-6, 205 pounds) has good wing proportions and is already a very capable shooter. If he can improve his defense, there`s a potential path for him to reach an NBA roster through an Exhibit-10 contract with the Clippers. Quality three-point specialists with NBA size often find a quicker route to the league than other types of players.

My prediction is that Joan Beringer (No. 17 to the Minnesota Timberwolves) will be an All-Defensive team candidate within five years. He has the unique advantage of learning daily from four-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, also a fellow Frenchman. Beringer, who grew significantly in the past year, didn`t start playing basketball until summer 2021, having focused on soccer before a growth spurt. In his first professional season in the Adriatic League, he demonstrated exceptional shot-blocking, instincts, and agility as a drop defender and rim protector, indicating immense long-term defensive potential.

I predict the Nets` draft class will age better than many expect. There`s a clear strategy in what Brooklyn aimed to achieve: they acquired Nolan Traore (No. 19) and Drake Powell (No. 22) after perceived down seasons, and they added several high-IQ, above-average-sized passers in Demin, Ben Saraf (No. 26), and Danny Wolf (No. 27). The Nets clearly intend to build a team that prioritizes unselfish play and ball movement. I`m less concerned about these players hindering each other`s development than some seem to be.

While improving their perimeter shooting is a necessary variable for all these players, I worry less about skill overlap when you group players who excel and enjoy passing. Allowing them to begin their careers together, build chemistry, and play a distinct style should create easier scoring opportunities for everyone. The Nets appear to have sufficient playing time available as they look towards potentially another high draft pick next year, and I believe several players from this class will exceed expectations.

My main takeaway is that college basketball is firmly back in prominence in the draft. After the top two picks last year came from France and Australia, there were zero non-collegiate international players selected in this year`s top 10, and only six in the first round. These are historically low figures, and they may decrease further next year, with current projections showing very few international players from non-NCAA routes in the early rounds. Significant NIL earnings in college have encouraged players to stay in school and attracted more international prospects to the US, as seen with Demin and Jakucionis. The impact of revenue-sharing restrictions from the recent House settlement on high NIL salaries remains to be seen; it might influence whether some international players choose to stay home and develop through traditional European systems.

My top takeaway is that “consensus” is merely a concept. Nearly all the surprising first-round picks resulted from teams prioritizing their internal evaluations and draft boards above external expectations. Whether it was Memphis ensuring they got Coward, New Orleans making a bold move for Queen, Portland surprisingly taking Yang, or the Nets utilizing all five of their first-round picks, the draft is inherently subjective. This draft served as an entertaining reminder that many teams are willing to draft with conviction, disregarding the public`s perception of value.