2025 NBA Draft: Player Comparisons for Lottery Prospects

We`re once again diving into the 2025 NBA draft, set for June 25-26, to provide professional player comparisons for the top prospects expected to be selected in the lottery.

This practice can be quite insightful when approached carefully. However, it`s a task prone to exaggeration and often proves more challenging than it appears.

Our aim isn`t to create flawless comparisons for each of the 14 anticipated lottery selections; such an endeavor would inevitably lead to inaccuracies. Instead, this exercise offers a framework for contemplating a prospect`s future role, evaluating their potential career trajectories, and identifying the key developmental areas crucial for their sustained success.

This analytical approach aids in player assessment from a conceptual viewpoint and helps visualize how a prospect`s skill set might align with a specific team`s needs.

Keeping this in mind, and with the draft quickly approaching, let`s explore both the optimistic and conservative comparisons for each player projected within the top 14 picks, alongside a bonus selection also on team radars as a potential lottery talent.

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1. Cooper Flagg, Small Forward/Power Forward, Duke

Projected Draft Spot: No. 1 to Dallas Mavericks | Top 100 Ranking: No. 1

Ceiling: Jayson Tatum, but with enhanced defensive capabilities
Floor: Andre Iguodala, offering greater offensive contributions

Flagg is widely considered the consensus No. 1 pick, and for good reason: both statistical analysis and empirical observation suggest he`s on a path to becoming one of the NBA`s elite wing players. A key question circulating among NBA executives throughout the season has been just how high Flagg`s potential reaches. His well-rounded offensive game and exceptional defense provide an incredible foundation of versatility for an 18-year-old entering the league, a trait the Mavericks should be able to leverage effectively next season. Some in the league have drawn parallels to a modern Scottie Pippen, while Flagg himself has stated he models his game after Tatum, his favorite player.

Should Flagg continue to advance his shot creation – an area where he`s shown comfort in the midrange but still needs refinement – a Tatum-esque scoring surge is certainly plausible. He has significantly improved this aspect of his game over the past few years, growing more confident from long range and sparking optimism that he will become adept at improvising and operating off the dribble. If he doesn`t evolve into a primary offensive option, he might best fit as a secondary star alongside a teammate focused more on scoring.

While Flagg is expected to contribute more offensively than Iguodala, who never averaged over 20 points per game, this comparison highlights how he can add value beyond just putting the ball in the basket himself. As with most of these comparisons, the most probable outcome often lies somewhere in the middle. In Flagg`s case, the spectrum of possibilities is more exhilarating than worrisome for NBA evaluators.

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2. Dylan Harper, Point Guard/Shooting Guard, Rutgers

Projected Draft Spot: No. 2 to San Antonio Spurs | Top 100 Ranking: No. 2

Ceiling: Jalen Brunson, but with greater size
Floor: D`Angelo Russell

Harper`s combination of size, strength, scoring ability, and playmaking skills makes him a highly appealing professional prospect, possessing the toolkit to lead an offense as a high-usage star in a best-case scenario. Although Harper`s physical dimensions (6-foot-6, 215 pounds) should make him a more impactful defensive player, the comparison to Brunson holds true from a broader perspective: both excel by relying on finesse, initiating contact, and exploiting angles to disorient defenses. Brunson was a superior 3-point shooter coming out of Villanova, an area Harper will need to develop to maximize his potential. Yet, there`s a strong possibility he reaches that level and becomes a foundational player and offensive lynchpin.

Harper`s high floor, partly due to his size advantage when handling the ball, is a significant part of his appeal – his diverse strengths make it improbable that he`ll fail in the NBA. Even when considering his lower-end outcomes, he`s still likely to become a capable starting-caliber player. He could end up as an average shooter, and his defensive contributions might be inconsistent based on past tendencies. Such possibilities would limit his impact on winning games as a primary or secondary offensive option, but his game could still adapt effectively to a lesser role.

Russell, who was the No. 2 pick in 2015 and an All-Star in his fourth season, has been a productive player, but he hasn`t consistently led winning teams. Harper is expected to be impactful early in his career, but his long-term trajectory will depend on team context and continuous improvement.

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3. Ace Bailey, Shooting Guard/Small Forward, Rutgers

Projected Draft Spot: No. 3 to Philadelphia 76ers | Top 100 Ranking: No. 3

Ceiling: Michael Porter Jr.
Floor: Andrew Wiggins

Bailey stands out as the draft`s most dynamic shotmaker, a talent that clearly indicates his significant scoring upside. The main long-term question revolves around how he will fully harness this skill, as the rest of Bailey`s game is still developing. He possesses the size to rise and shoot over most defenders, a knack for hitting off-balance shots, and a shooting stroke that looks promising for catch-and-shoot scenarios from long range.

However, he isn`t a naturally creative ball handler; he often tends to stop his dribble and settle for a shot rather than navigating through defenses, making his style predictable at times, though not always easy to stop.

It`s challenging to rely on Bailey developing the playmaking ability and ball-handling skills that would justify heavy on-ball usage, which makes Michael Porter Jr. an interesting comparison. As a draft prospect from Missouri in 2018, Porter faced similar questions regarding his passing and handling. He greatly benefited from joining the Denver Nuggets, a team where his shooting has been maximized by the presence of surrounding playmakers, and where he hasn`t been pressured to create outside his comfort zone.

It`s easy to envision Bailey`s efficiency and game transforming positively within such a context, serving as a second or third scorer. However, at this stage of his career, it`s harder to project him as a bona fide primary offensive option. If that never materializes, his career might more closely resemble Andrew Wiggins, who has been a consistent scorer throughout his career but hasn`t always been integral to winning basketball.

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4. VJ Edgecombe, Shooting Guard, Baylor

Projected Draft Spot: No. 4 to Charlotte Hornets | Top 100 Ranking: No. 4

Ceiling: Victor Oladipo
Floor: Jaden Ivey

The core appeal of Edgecombe largely centers on the possibility of him developing into a proficient on-ball creator, where his speed, strength, and exceptional explosiveness could maximally trouble opposing defenses.

Providing him with the necessary opportunities to make this leap will be the first step, wherever he lands. His mold as a downhill, hyper-athletic slasher makes Victor Oladipo a valid point of comparison. It took Oladipo time to establish himself in the NBA, and he fully broke out in his fifth season (2017-18) before a 2019 knee injury disrupted his career. There are some parallels in their playing styles and trajectories entering the league, including the need to develop a more consistent outside shot and to refine their ability to generate offense while handling the ball.

Edgecombe possesses All-Star potential if all aspects of his game coalesce. While there`s inherent risk given the level of adjustments he might need to fully leverage his physical tools, it`s also easy to foresee a useful floor due to his probable value as a high-energy perimeter defender and transition player.

The comparison to Jaden Ivey is somewhat complex because the Detroit Pistons guard is still evolving himself, though things began to click for him this past season before a January injury. Slashing guards of this archetype, who must learn to make sound decisions with the ball, often require time to find success.

Edgecombe`s offensive range of outcomes could be quite broad, but at minimum, he should still be a highly valuable backcourt contributor – adding to his appeal as a top-five selection.

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5. Jeremiah Fears, Point Guard, Oklahoma

Projected Draft Spot: No. 5 to Utah Jazz | Top 100 Ranking: No. 7

Ceiling: Monta Ellis
Floor: Jerryd Bayless

Fears` profile features intriguing stylistic elements that make him a challenging comparison. He drives to the basket and pressures the paint with more audacity and skill than a typical guard of his size, but he`s also not historically a strong 3-point shooter (28.4% from deep last season at Oklahoma), creating a somewhat old-school baseline archetype.

Considering his age (18) and the progress he made with the Sooners, Fears has the potential to be a dangerous scorer and playmaker, but much hinges on his ability to be efficient. Either his perimeter shooting must improve – a reasonable expectation given his excellent free throw percentages (85.1% last season) – or his interior scoring must translate effectively enough to support the rest of his game.

Although it dates back a decade or so, Monta Ellis serves as an interesting stylistic comparison: a smaller, high-volume scorer and creator who struggled with turnovers and inconsistent long-distance shooting for much of his career. It`s certainly possible Fears could surpass that, but it might be a significant leap to fully rely on him becoming a top-tier jump shooter, even though he should improve as he gains strength and experience. If that doesn`t happen, he could end up more like a Jerryd Bayless type – a combo bench scorer in the long run, representing a developmental downside given how high a team will need to select him on draft night.

Fears` significant flashes of talent provide room for optimism, but there`s a somewhat broad range of outcomes given all the variables that need to align for him to become a star.

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6. Tre Johnson, Shooting Guard, Texas

Projected Draft Spot: No. 6 to Washington Wizards | Top 100 Ranking: No. 5

Ceiling: Michael Redd
Floor: Cam Thomas, but with greater height

Johnson is a relatively straightforward prospect to analyze. He`s likely to shoot well, he`s probably going to take a lot of shots, and anything else he contributes to his future team will be a bonus, not a core expectation.

Johnson`s clean and compact shooting stroke will make him a threat from long range, and he has demonstrated an ability to create his own shot off the dribble, possessing the fearlessness required for a volume scorer, though this can sometimes lead to questionable shot selection. His efficiency in the paint and finishing around the rim will also need to improve.

If Johnson can achieve a career trajectory similar to Michael Redd (though Redd`s peak in the early 2000s was eventually hampered by serious knee injuries in 2009), that would be an exceptional result, and there are some comparable elements here. Redd became one of the top 3-point shooters of his era and carried a heavy scoring load primarily due to the threat of his unorthodox jumper. It`s worth noting that Johnson is significantly ahead of Redd at the same age (Redd was a career 31.9% 3-point shooter at Ohio State and a second-round pick). Johnson`s mechanics are much cleaner and project more safely.

It`s a reasonable assumption that Johnson can evolve into a dynamic volume shooter – the question is whether he can do so efficiently, and if he`ll be able to contribute within a winning team context. These are similar questions that have surrounded Cam Thomas`s value due to comparable tendencies he has displayed four years into his NBA career (2021-25).

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7. Khaman Maluach, Center, Duke

Projected Draft Spot: No. 7 to New Orleans Pelicans | Top 100 Ranking: No. 6

Ceiling: Rudy Gobert, but with enhanced quickness
Floor: Daniel Gafford, but with greater size

Maluach perfectly fits the mold of a rim-protecting, rim-running center, an archetype that has maintained its value through various stylistic evolutions in the NBA over the past two decades. He is still early in learning the game and refining his defensive habits; his sheer size alone acts as a deterrent in the paint, coupled with above-average mobility for his 7-foot-2 frame, indicating significant defensive potential. As an efficient finisher who is otherwise limited offensively, Maluach could eventually become a top-tier player within his specific role.

While Gobert might seem like an obvious comparison for paint-protecting 7-footers, in this instance, it effectively illustrates Maluach`s upside as a player who could potentially provide a crucial defensive anchor for a winning team. It`s certainly not guaranteed that he will reach Defensive Player of the Year caliber heights, but there`s a strong sense of security in what he already offers, alongside feasible areas for improvement, especially if he develops a 3-point shot.

Maluach`s floor as a useful contributor feels quite secure regardless: centers with his immense physical dimensions, above-average mobility, and understanding of their role – similar to the comparison with Gafford – typically find their place in the league.

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8. Kon Knueppel, Shooting Guard/Small Forward, Duke

Projected Draft Spot: No. 8 to Brooklyn Nets | Top 100 Ranking: No. 8

Ceiling: Desmond Bane
Floor: Joe Harris

Knueppel can be argued as the best shooter in this draft class, but it`s the comprehensive nature of his all-around offensive game that has elevated him into contention for a potential top-five pick. NBA teams were pleasantly surprised by Knueppel`s decision-making and passing acumen at Duke, where he excelled in a significant role that required him to facilitate offense and space the floor at a high level. His average athletic profile – he isn`t exceptionally fast or quick – is the primary concern in his projection, potentially limiting some of his high-end outcomes if he`s unable to consistently generate elite-level offense.

Desmond Bane was an underrated draft prospect in 2020 coming out of TCU, where he was a career 43.2% 3-point shooter but was seen as an average athlete with short arms and limited high-end potential. He quickly surpassed those expectations, becoming a vital player for the Grizzlies in his second season. Memphis invested in his skill set and the possibility that he could become more than just a 3-and-D player, providing him opportunities to make plays and assume greater responsibility. Although he won`t surprise anyone in the way Bane did, Knueppel`s best-case scenarios align with that trajectory.

Considering Knueppel`s age (he turns 20 on August 3, whereas Bane played four years in college), his career peak could potentially surpass Bane`s in the right situation, contributing to NBA teams` optimism about his future. If he doesn`t quite click as a shot creator deserving of extensive usage, Knueppel should still be a top-tier shooter who plays valuable minutes on successful teams in a more limited capacity, similar to Joe Harris.

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9. Collin Murray-Boyles, Power Forward/Center, South Carolina

Projected Draft Spot: No. 9 to Toronto Raptors | Top 100 Ranking: No. 14

Ceiling: Al Horford
Floor: Xavier Tillman

Murray-Boyles is projected to be a solid utility player in the frontcourt, capable of operating across the floor offensively due to his intelligent passing, guarding multiple positions with his length, and leveraging his physicality and toughness. Maximizing his potential hinges on the development of his questionable 3-point shot; if he can pose a threat from beyond the arc, it will help compensate for his less-than-ideal size for a power forward.

If his shot develops, Murray-Boyles could end up in the vein of a modern Al Horford – a versatile big man who can be instrumental to winning as a defensive anchor with complementary offensive utility.

Should Murray-Boyles` development completely stagnate at the NBA level – an unlikely scenario given his age (he turns 20 on June 10) and current trajectory – he should still secure a roster spot as a valuable depth player, much like Xavier Tillman, who shared some of his inherent strengths but was older and significantly less mobile coming out of Michigan State.

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10. Kasparas Jakucionis, Point Guard, Illinois

Projected Draft Spot: No. 10 to Houston Rockets | Top 100 Ranking: No. 10

Ceiling: Austin Reaves
Floor: Delon Wright

Jakucionis is a shrewd playmaker as a 6-foot-6 guard, possessing the instincts and skill level to handle the ball and an improving shooting stroke. Relying on pace, timing, and improvisation rather than elite speed, he excels in screen situations and plays an unselfish style that should allow him to succeed regardless of whether he develops into a full-time lead guard. He needs to improve his ball security (3.7 turnovers per game) and 3-point shooting (31.8%), but his demanding role at Illinois required him to take risks, which contributed to some of those inefficiencies.

It`s plausible Jakucionis will be valued similarly to Austin Reaves, another crafty combo guard with whom he shares stylistic similarities. Reaves entered the NBA at a much older age and quickly became a mainstay for the Los Angeles Lakers. Jakucionis might take longer, but he is considerably further along than where Reaves, who played four years in college and went undrafted out of Oklahoma, was at the same age.

And in a worst-case scenario, his well-rounded skill set and ability to play both guard spots should still ensure him a long-term role in the NBA as a reserve.

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11. Egor Demin, Point Guard/Shooting Guard, BYU

Projected Draft Spot: No. 11 to Portland Trail Blazers | Top 100 Ranking: No. 11

Ceiling: Deni Avdija and Josh Giddey
Floor: Kyle Anderson

It`s easy to recognize the appeal and undeniable talent Demin brings as an oversized playmaker, boasting arguably the best passing vision in his class. These types of players are consistently sought after, with NBA teams valuing perimeter size and feel that can adapt to a variety of roles.

Two critical factors in Demin`s projection are how much time he`ll spend handling the ball and the consistency of his long-range shooting. His below-average foot speed and streaky 3-point stroke introduce some risk factors. He isn`t quick at creating off the dribble and will need to keep defenses honest with his shot to maximize his path to playing time.

While not perfect comparisons, Josh Giddey, a historically below-average shooter who thrives when making plays with the ball, and Deni Avdija, who has settled in over the past couple of seasons as a multi-skilled off-ball forward, can illustrate different roles Demin could eventually settle into. Whether he`s capable of playing as a quasi-lead guard or adds more value as a connective player away from the ball remains to be seen, but both paths are feasible depending on his development.

If his development stagnates and doesn`t lead to a top rotation role, he could still provide long-term utility as a depth piece, similar to how Kyle Anderson has for much of the past decade.

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12. Derik Queen, Center, Maryland

Projected Draft Spot: No. 12 to Chicago Bulls | Top 100 Ranking: No. 11

Ceiling: Alperen Sengun
Floor: Sandro Mamukelashvili

Queen offers significant offensive contributions, with the face-up skills and passing ability to operate across the court and facilitate effective offense. The success of players like Alperen Sengun, who fell into the late teens on draft night in 2021 and was viewed as an unconventional prospect, helps establish the foundation for Queen`s potential. He needs to become a more aggressive rebounder and engaged defender – two aspects that would benefit from improving his physique and conditioning. He also needs to develop a more dependable 3-point shot.

There is a place for skilled, offense-oriented big men in today`s NBA, but there`s also an inherent risk when relying on players with subpar physical and defensive attributes. This is a factor teams consider when projecting Queen`s future value. If he doesn`t fully maximize his abilities and develop into a cornerstone player for a team, at worst, his talent and basketball IQ will still help him find a role.

Sandro Mamukelashvili, an offense-minded big who has settled into a deep bench role in the NBA, represents an extreme downside – Queen is far more talented – but that comparison is intended to underscore the potential floor if Queen struggles to stay on the floor defensively. The most likely outcome is somewhere in the middle.

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13. Joan Beringer, Center, Cedevita Olimpija (Slovenia)

Projected Draft Spot: No. 13 to Atlanta Hawks | Top 100 Ranking: No. 15

Ceiling: Clint Capela
Floor: Jaxson Hayes

Beringer`s anticipated NBA role is straightforward and well-established: he will catch lobs, run the rim, protect the paint, and potentially switch defensively to some extent. Considering he won`t turn 19 until November and has only been playing basketball for three years, NBA teams see attractive upside due to his robust physical tools and above-average agility for a young center. He is still very early in his development, which introduces some risk but also provides a long pathway for his next team to nurture him into a potential long-term starting center.

When describing this specific type of center, Clint Capela is often the classic point of reference. Although Beringer is unlikely to space the floor or threaten with his jumper, these kinds of big men can still thrive with surrounding shooting and playmaking, capable of finishing plays and posing a threat around the basket without needing designed touches.

Jaxson Hayes, who was the No. 8 pick from Texas in 2019 due to his remarkable physical tools and similar upside case, has never solidified himself as a starting-level player, but he continues to maintain a role in the NBA after six seasons – now with the Lakers. Beringer will likely fall somewhere along this spectrum, depending on how quickly he can adapt to the NBA game and extract the most from his talent.

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14. Carter Bryant, Small Forward/Power Forward, Arizona

Projected Draft Spot: No. 14 to San Antonio Spurs | Top 100 Ranking: No. 12

Ceiling: Trey Murphy III
Floor: Royce O`Neale

Bryant`s appealing combination of perimeter size, defensive versatility, passing IQ, and a clean shooting stroke fits a valuable NBA archetype. He should offer lineup flexibility at multiple positions on both ends of the floor, with room for offensive growth. It`s difficult to expect a massive leap from Bryant in terms of shot creation; significant gains in that area could place him on a trajectory similar to Trey Murphy, another late-blooming 3-and-D type who took time to blossom as a scorer.

Admittedly, this comparison would have been more apt before Murphy`s unheralded scoring surge last season in New Orleans. It`s hard to anticipate that same level of output from Bryant, but he has time. If he can develop into a higher-volume threat from long distance, he could add value even if he never breaks the 20-point threshold, as Murphy recently did.

And if Bryant were to stagnate as merely a useful bench player, he could still profile as a larger version of Royce O`Neale, who has consistently filled gaps and shot well at both forward spots throughout much of his career.

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Bonus Comparison!

While Noa Essengue wasn`t included in our most recent mock draft`s lottery projections, his rise into the top 10 of our Top 100 rankings warrants his inclusion here.

15. Noa Essengue, Power Forward, Ratiopharm Ulm (Germany)

Projected Draft Spot: No. 15 to Oklahoma City Thunder | Top 100 Ranking: No. 9

Ceiling: Pascal Siakam
Floor: Jarred Vanderbilt

Essengue has increasingly strengthened his case over the past few months in Germany, showing tangible improvements in consistency and motor, playing an active style that has contributed positively to team success. Still just 18 years old, Essengue possesses a combination of size, mobility, explosiveness, and a projectable frame that provides him with a wide array of pathways to ultimately succeed in the NBA. Forwards of his type, who can defend multiple positions, contribute effectively on the glass, and comfortably operate on the perimeter, are difficult to find.

If Essengue can build upon this season, he has the potential to become an excellent NBA player who relies on his hustle and physicality while improving his skill level over time, similar to Pascal Siakam. Essengue has proven valuable without needing focused touches, demonstrates good instincts within the flow of the game, and consistently finds ways to produce. A significant offensive breakthrough would still be necessary for him to maximize his potential, particularly as a perimeter shooter, where he currently struggles with consistency.

If an offensive breakthrough does not occur, Essengue should still be a useful role player, offering rebounding and defensive value off the bench, much like Jarred Vanderbilt has.