Duke freshman Cooper Flagg has been highly ranked for the 2025 NBA draft for over a year.
He has improved his standing this season, especially in ACC play since turning 18. Duke challenged him to lead a young team against top-ranked opponents.
In 20 ACC games, Flagg averaged 21.2 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 4.4 assists. He was named ACC player and rookie of the year and an All-American. He demonstrated his skills as a passer, decision-maker, and shooter. Flagg is one of four freshmen in the last 25 years to average 20 points with 50% FG and 40% 3PT in conference play.
Flagg injured his ankle in the ACC tournament but expects to be healthy for the NCAA tournament, where Duke is a No. 1 seed and Final Four contender.
NBA executives and scouts believe the gap between Flagg and other 2025 draft prospects has grown. They are discussing his rookie expectations and comparison to past No. 1 picks.
NBA executives were interviewed anonymously to discuss Flagg`s appeal, areas for improvement, and NCAA tournament expectations. They also considered the possibility of him returning to Duke for his sophomore year.
Flagg has lived up to expectations since arriving at Duke.
One executive stated Flagg is as NBA-ready as any top pick in the last decade.
Flagg`s Strengths and Comparisons to Top Picks
Executives agree Flagg`s fierce competitiveness and intensity are unique and valuable.
An executive noted Flagg`s winning drive, supported by coaches and teammates` feedback. This is a rare quality for an 18-year-old, especially for a team needing impact after a losing season.
Described as an `ass kicker`, Flagg sets a high energy and unselfishness standard.
While Flagg improved offensively, his defense is considered a key strength. He is projected to defend multiple positions well and create turnovers and protect the rim due to his intensity and timing.
Scouts consider Flagg among the best prospects in recent drafts, though behind Victor Wembanyama.
One scout places Flagg in the tier below Wembanyama with other top prospects.
Zion Williamson was the last Duke player with similar hype as a No. 1 pick. While stylistically different, Flagg`s production has drawn comparisons in terms of expectations.
Flagg`s stats are not as high as Williamson`s freshman year, but advanced stats highlight Flagg`s significant impact, especially defensively. His assist-to-turnover ratio is better than Williamson and other recent No. 1 picks, showing his playmaking ability.
His college dominance is supported by stats and scouting observations, with comparisons to NBA stars.
A general manager compared Flagg to Kawhi Leonard, noting their two-way versatility, passing, and defensive ability across positions.
While Leonard was seen as a defensive specialist initially, Flagg is considered a better shooter and overall player as a freshman.
Flagg`s Weaknesses
Executives are concerned about Flagg`s performance in crucial late-game situations.
One executive questioned if Flagg can consistently create shots and be a go-to scorer in critical moments. Early in the season, his offense looked somewhat mechanical and predictable.
Another executive mentioned Flagg`s turnovers in key moments during a loss to Kentucky.
Despite concerns about handling, finishing, and court awareness, executives expect Flagg to improve these skills.
One executive noted Flagg`s improved ball-handling and pull-up shooting, though these areas still need development. His feel for the game is considered elite, mitigating some weaknesses.
Flagg`s Impact on Duke`s National Title Chances
Flagg`s performance since the start of the season has increased confidence in his NBA potential. Scouts highlight his handling of pressure and positive impact on teammates, including fellow top freshmen.
An executive admitted underestimating Flagg`s impact on Duke, elevating them to a title contender at a young age.
Flagg has backed up high expectations with individual and team success. His unselfishness is notable given the hype and platform.
Evaluators are eager to see Flagg in the NCAA tournament, observing how he performs under increased pressure and against top defenses.
Scouts are interested in seeing how Flagg adapts to elite defensive game plans in high-stakes tournament games.
Flagg`s Potential Return to Duke
Despite no indications of injury affecting his decision, Flagg could return for his sophomore year. He expressed excitement about playing for Duke before the season.
Flagg stated he is focused on the present and later mentioned wanting to return next year, with fans chanting for `one more year`.
One executive believes his family won`t pressure his decision.
The executive speculated Flagg might prefer to remain a college student, noting he should still be in high school. He reclassified and graduated early.
Some projected top picks have returned to school, though not typically No. 1 projected picks.
Flagg has until the NBA draft early-entry deadline in April to decide. A surprising early tournament exit could influence his decision.
NIL earnings might make returning to college more financially considerable, reflecting the evolving college basketball landscape.
However, returning could cost Flagg a significant amount of potential NBA earnings in the long run due to delaying his service clock for larger contracts and the risk of injury.
An executive can`t recall a No. 1 pick ever returning to college.
