Expect the 2025 NBA offseason to be full of significant events, potentially as dramatic as this season`s trade deadline, which saw All-Stars like Luka Doncic, Jimmy Butler III, Zach LaVine, and De`Aaron Fox traded within a single week in early February. Now, the spotlight shifts to major players such as Milwaukee Bucks big man Giannis Antetokounmpo and Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant, among other stars whose team futures are uncertain.
The Bucks and Suns are among the ten teams we are closely monitoring this summer. This list also includes the 2024 NBA champions, the Boston Celtics. These teams have the potential to significantly alter the league landscape during the offseason.
Boston Celtics
“The CBA has been well known for years. So there are penalties associated with being at certain levels, and we know that. You just weigh that. You weigh where we are. You weigh everything else, then you make those decisions.”
— Brad Stevens, May 2025
Brad Stevens, the Celtics` President of Basketball Operations, is well aware of the team`s projected $500 million payroll and the limitations imposed by being over the salary cap`s second apron.
Unlike the previous season, where winning the NBA championship justified a high payroll, Boston`s roster faces scrutiny after their second-round playoff exit, compounded by superstar Jayson Tatum tearing his Achilles during that series.
The Celtics are $23 million above the second apron. Getting below this threshold with a single trade is difficult unless, for example, the Brooklyn Nets are willing to absorb center Kristaps Porzingis`s $30.7 million expiring contract. Reducing salary will likely require multiple transactions.
With Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Derrick White under contract until at least the 2028-29 season, Boston must balance cost reduction with their goal of contending for championships.
If they remain above the second apron, Boston faces several roster restrictions, including the inability to:
- Combine multiple contracts in a trade (aggregate salaries).
- Use more than 100% of the value of a traded player exception.
- Include cash in trades.
- Utilize pre-existing trade exceptions.
- Sign a waived player whose salary was $14.1 million or higher.
Additionally, Boston`s 2033 first-round pick will become frozen if they finish the 2025-26 season over the second apron (their 2032 pick is already frozen).
Brooklyn Nets
“If you`re going after max-level talent, they have to automatically and absolutely change the trajectory of your team. This can`t be like let`s go get this [guy] and lock ourselves into being a 6-7 seed. When we go all-in, you`re going in to compete at the highest level and contend.”
— Sean Marks, April 2025
This offseason, the Nets possess unique assets: four first-round draft picks in June and over $40 million in cap space.
However, unlike in 2019 when they signed Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving in free agency, the current roster is not built for immediate championship contention, even with the addition of an All-NBA caliber player.
Consequently, Brooklyn might utilize their cap space to sign free agents to large contracts (similar to Indiana signing Bruce Brown in 2023), acquire salary in exchange for draft picks, or target restricted free agents with offer sheets.
Most of Brooklyn`s available cap space must be spent by the start of the regular season, as teams are required to spend 90% of the salary cap. Including the salaries of their four first-round picks, Brooklyn has $79 million in salary and needs to spend an additional $60 million to meet this requirement.
Denver Nuggets
“We definitely need to figure out a way to get more depth. It seems like the teams that have longer rotations, the longer benches, are the ones who are winning. Indiana, OKC, Minnesota.”
— Nikola Jokic, May 2025
Comments from the three-time MVP did not surprise Nuggets president Josh Kroenke. “I heard Jokic`s comments loud and clear. I mean, I think that I was thinking that before those words came out of his mouth,” Kroenke stated last month.
With Jokic having three years remaining on his contract, there is a sense of urgency to improve the roster, particularly the bench depth. The Nuggets` starters averaged 94.4 points in the regular season, the highest output by any starting unit since the 1986-87 season, according to ESPN Research.
Denver has primarily three avenues to enhance their depth:
- Developing recent draft picks like Jalen Pickett, Peyton Watson, Julian Strawther, Hunter Tyson, and DaRon Holmes into reliable rotational players.
- Pursuing trades. As Denver has only one future first-round pick available for trade (in 2031 or 2032), their most significant trade asset is Michael Porter Jr. Porter Jr. averaged a career-high 18.2 points last season and is due $38.3 million and $40.8 million over the next two seasons. The combined salaries of Zeke Nnaji and Dario Saric ($13.5 million) could also be included. However, since Denver is projected to be a first-apron team, they are restricted in taking back salary in trades.
- Signing free agents. This path appears challenging because the Nuggets` salary structure is top-heavy, with Jokic, Jamal Murray, Porter Jr., and Aaron Gordon accounting for 82% of their total payroll. Furthermore, the first year of Murray`s contract extension will push Denver back over the first apron. Unless a trade clears significant salary, Denver`s primary option for free agency will be the veteran minimum exception.
Golden State Warriors
“We`re good at giving up whatever it takes. It just depends on how good we think that will make our team. I think the only issue with mortgaging the future is you just don`t want to get caught. I don`t want to get caught in a situation where we give up a ton, put all our chips in, and then 10 games into the season, we have a catastrophic injury, there`s nowhere to go and then we`re stuck for four or five years.”
— Mike Dunleavy Jr., May 2025
Golden State General Manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. possesses the draft capital to make significant “all-in” moves.
Starting from draft night, the Warriors are eligible to trade up to four future first-round picks: 2026, 2028, 2030 (if not in the top 20), and 2032. They also hold the right to swap first-round picks in future years, contingent on their 2030 pick. However, the challenge lies in assembling a substantial salary package for trades without including core players like Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, or Jimmy Butler III (if applicable). Curry, Butler, and Green represent 85% of Golden State`s payroll. The remaining six players under contract are set to earn a combined $30 million next season. These salary limitations highlight Jonathan Kuminga`s crucial role in the Warriors` offseason plans.
The Warriors are expected to extend a $7.9 million qualifying offer to Kuminga, making him a restricted free agent. With Brooklyn being the only team realistically able to offer a starting salary of $20 million or more (which Golden State could match), exploring a sign-and-trade might be the most viable option.
A sign-and-trade presents two main challenges, besides Kuminga needing to sign a contract of at least three guaranteed years. Firstly, only 50% of Kuminga`s outgoing salary counts towards the trade matching rules for Golden State, while the acquiring team takes on the full amount (e.g., a $30 million salary counts as $15 million outgoing for GSW but $30 million incoming for the other team). Secondly, Golden State is currently $25 million below the first apron. They would be unable to acquire a player earning more than this amount in a trade unless additional salary is included.
Houston Rockets
“I think continuity for continuity`s sake isn`t what we`re trying to achieve. Continuity is great, but the goal ultimately is to build a championship team. And if we think that there`s a move or a series of moves that make it more likely we will be that then, then we would ignore continuity, and we do those moves.”
— Rafael Stone (via Houston Chronicle)
Given General Manager Rafael Stone`s willingness to prioritize acquiring an All-NBA player over maintaining roster continuity, expect the Rockets to be active and aggressive this offseason.
Houston meets the three primary criteria for acquiring a superstar:
- Draft Capital: Houston holds five tradeable first-round picks over the next seven years. This includes the 10th pick in this year`s draft, unprotected firsts from Phoenix (2027) and Phoenix or Dallas (2029), and the ability to trade their own firsts in 2028, 2030, and 2032.
- Controllable Contracts: The Rockets have five players — Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason, Reed Sheppard, Cam Whitmore, and Amen Thompson — on cost-controlled rookie-scale contracts.
- Sizable Contracts: Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green signed rookie extensions last October. The “poison pill” restriction on their contracts lifts on July 1, making them fully trade eligible. Both are set to earn $33 million next season. Additionally, Dillon Brooks has two years remaining on his contract ($22.1 million and $20.9 million).
The Rockets also have until June 29 to exercise Fred VanVleet`s $44.9 million team option. This decision will significantly impact Houston`s financial flexibility for trades and their ability to retain free agent Steven Adams.
Houston performed best in their first-round series against Golden State when Adams was paired with Sengun. When both players were on the court together this postseason, the Rockets had a net rating of plus-30.7 points per 100 possessions, compared to plus-30 during the regular season.
Houston is positioned right at the first salary apron when considering the team options for VanVleet and Aaron Holiday, plus the non-guaranteed contract of Jock Landale.
Los Angeles Lakers
“I think when you make a huge trade at the deadline where you trade your starting center for a point guard, of course, that`s going to create significant issues with the roster, and we saw some of those play out. We know this offseason, one of our primary goals is going to be to add size in our frontcourt at the center position.”
— Rob Pelinka, May 2025
Lakers General Manager Rob Pelinka attempted to acquire Charlotte Hornets center Mark Williams at the trade deadline to provide a lob threat for Luka Doncic and address the void left by trading Anthony Davis. However, the trade was voided due to a failed physical.
While the Lakers lack the salary cap space to sign a free agent like Myles Turner, they possess assets for a trade: a 2031 or 2032 first-round pick, five years of future pick swaps, 2024 first-round pick Dalton Knecht, and over $70 million in expiring contracts (including Austin Reaves, Dorian Finney-Smith, Rui Hachimura, Maxi Kleber, and Gabe Vincent).
The Lakers must continue to balance their “win-now” imperative with LeBron James still on the roster and the need to build a sustainable future roster centered around Luka Doncic. Doncic is eligible to sign a four-year, $229 million extension on August 2nd.
Milwaukee Bucks
“Me not having a second championship — I look back at my career and everybody can say, `Oh, incredible career, active Hall of Famer, first ballot, whatever. But me, my personal goal, if I am not able to help my team win a second ring, I`m letting down myself.”
— Giannis Antetokounmpo, April 2025 (via Thanalysis podcast)
The Milwaukee Bucks are set to be a central point of discussion in the NBA this offseason for two primary reasons.
ESPN`s Shams Charania reported in mid-May that Giannis Antetokounmpo is exploring whether remaining with the Bucks or seeking opportunities elsewhere represents his best long-term fit.
Antetokounmpo is under contract for the next three seasons, with a player option for the 2027-28 season. The 30-year-old two-time MVP will become eligible to sign a four-year, $293.4 million extension in the 2026 offseason, which he could sign with the Bucks or potentially a new team.
As is often the case, Milwaukee faces pressure this offseason to build a championship-contending roster around their superstar.
Improving this top-heavy roster could prove challenging this summer. Milwaukee cannot trade multiple first-round picks and is currently limited to trading only their 2031 or 2032 first-round selection. Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, and Kyle Kuzma`s salaries combine for $130 million of the Bucks` $164 million projected payroll next season.
Lillard, who turns 35 in July, is owed $113 million over the next two seasons while recovering from a torn Achilles. Several other key players, including Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, Taurean Prince, Kevin Porter Jr., and Gary Trent Jr., could become free agents this summer (Portis and Porter Jr. have player options). Despite these challenges, there are positive aspects. Milwaukee is no longer burdened by previous financial constraints and has avenues to add talent through free agency or trades. Furthermore, they play in a relatively wide-open Eastern Conference without a clear prohibitive favorite for the upcoming season.
Orlando Magic
“We`re ready to kind of turn the page on our rebuild and enter the next stage of our team and look at it through a more win-now lens.”
— Jeff Weltman, April 2025
While we wouldn`t label Orlando`s head of basketball operations, Jeff Weltman, as strictly conservative, he has seemingly attempted to carefully balance drafting, player development, retaining talent, and competing for a top-six playoff seed in the Eastern Conference recently.
Since 2021, Orlando has heavily focused on building through the NBA draft. The Magic roster features a league-high nine players selected in the draft, with only two players — Wendell Carter Jr. and Gary Harris — acquired via trade. This strategy has shown some success, with Orlando reaching the first round of the playoffs in consecutive seasons. However, they failed to advance in either appearance. With the initial years of Franz Wagner`s and Jalen Suggs` contract extensions set to begin, the Magic are projected to exceed the luxury tax and enter the first salary apron.
How the Magic take their next step depends on Weltman`s approach, especially considering the team`s health and whether they can realistically compete for a top-four seed in the East. Last regular season, their top four scorers — Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner, and Moritz Wagner — each missed at least 20 games. The core trio of Banchero, Suggs, and Franz Wagner played together in only six games, accounting for just 3% of Orlando`s total possessions.
If external help is deemed necessary, the Magic possess both the draft assets and contracts to make aggressive moves this offseason. They were the first team since the 2016-17 Oklahoma City Thunder to finish last in 3-point percentage while still reaching the postseason. Not only do they hold two first-round picks in this year`s draft, but they also have the ability to trade up to four first-rounders over the next seven years and hold the right to swap first-round picks in several seasons.
Phoenix Suns
“I want my career to end on my terms, that`s the only thing. That`s the only thing I`m worried about. `Cause I see a lot of dudes that don`t get that opportunity, so I want to keep putting in that work to make that choice on my own.”
— Kevin Durant, via `The Draymond Green Show with Baron Davis`
If Giannis Antetokounmpo is considered the top priority on teams` offseason wish lists (1A), then Kevin Durant is arguably a close second (1B).
The 37-year-old forward averaged 26.6 points last season, ranking sixth in the NBA. He has averaged below 25 points only once in his career, during his rookie season.
Following two expensive and underwhelming seasons, the Suns are likely to reshape their roster, beginning with exploring trade opportunities for the All-Star. Durant is entering the final year of his contract. Without signing an extension or being traded, the Suns risk losing him for no return next offseason.
Three factors could significantly influence the trade package Phoenix receives for Durant:
- Can Phoenix manage to drop below the second salary apron, which would allow them to aggregate contracts in a trade? Or can they get below the first apron to use more than 100% of a traded player exception? The Suns are projected to be $25 million over the second apron but could clear significant salary if Cody Martin`s $8.7 million is waived, Vasilije Micic`s $8.1 million team option is declined, and Bradley Beal`s contract is bought out. The same apron restrictions apply to teams interested in acquiring Durant`s $54.6 million salary.
- Would Durant be willing to sign a two-year, $112 million extension with his new team?
- Is the team trading for Durant still in a position to realistically compete for a championship?
San Antonio Spurs
“It just shows that they`re not here to waste time and they`re willing to take the next step on time. We`re moving forward. I think it`s a good step in the building of our future.”
— Victor Wembanyama, February 2025
Similar to Houston, San Antonio possesses the necessary components — draft assets, young players, significant contracts, and a perceived willingness to accelerate their timeline — to potentially acquire a third star to complement Victor Wembanyama and De`Aaron Fox.
San Antonio not only holds two lottery picks, including the No. 2 overall selection, but also has the right to swap first-round picks with the Atlanta Hawks in 2026, owns Atlanta`s unprotected first-round pick in 2027, and possesses multiple other pick swap rights. The Spurs are also allowed to trade two of their own future first-round picks (either 2029 and 2031, or 2030 and 2032). Additionally, they have a substantial pool of 17 second-round picks available for trade.
They also benefit from financial flexibility, allowing them to easily aggregate contracts in trades and take back more salary than they send out. Entering the offseason, San Antonio is $32 million and $44 million below the first and second salary aprons, respectively. Excluding the salaries of Fox and Wembanyama, the Spurs have 10 players earning between $3 million and $27 million, providing ample salary matching options for potential trades.
